[Callisto]

I only tried it once.


























Oh whoops, 'mania'. I was thinking of something else.









You know what, just never mind altogether.

[Evion]

Necroed the thread... What did you want to talk about?

[Lunaryn]

The difficulty is that the results are random. No one can dispute that. You could similarly say the damage you do to mobs is random, though people put an awful lot of effort into making sure those random numbers are big more often than not. SE has put random factors into many aspects of the game, and in some places their magnitude is great enough to obscure other factors. The effects of something like this can only be seen in aggregate over a great many synths.

The general theory as best I know and to the extent possible have observed is: You have three variables that affect how a particular synthesis can work for you. For the moment, let's call them N, X, and x. Note that this is not something totally agreed on; most things I've seen actually only consider two variables and dispute what goes into what. I've made three to try to clarify what you might need to consider, even as there's some dispute on what affects what.

N = recipe cap level - your craft skill
X = N - total of +skill from gear/moghancement
x = X - (2*moon phase%-1) - (1 for day of crystal / day crystal is strong to (disputed), -1 for day crystal is weak to) - (0.5 for direction of crystal / direction crystal is strong to (disputed), -0.5 for direction crystal is weak to) - (1 for synthesis image support, 2 (some hold 3) for advanced synthesis image support)

There are only a few things that are, to my knowledge, entirely undisputed regarding these numbers:
You cannot skill from the synth if N<=0
You cannot skill from breaks if N>5
You cannot attempt the synth at all if N>10

Also undisputed (I think) is that your chances of HQ raise in a tiered way for X<-10, X<-30, and X<-50.

Into more 'generally accepted by at least a wide minority of crafters' territory, we have the notion that the ideal range for achieving skillups quickly is 4 >= x >= 2. Even detractors from the notion that the factors listed under x contribute to anything generally would probably agree that it holds true for 4 >= X >= 2. It's also relatively accepted that the larger x (or if you don't believe in x, X) is, the greater your chance of breaking the synth.

What is bordering a little bit more on superstition, though some swear by it and no proof or disproof is readily available, is the notion that the value of X - x itself directly shifts the HQ/NQ rate around, such that positive X - x values make NQs more likely and negative X - x values make HQs more likely. There's also the notion that new moon directly increases failure and HQ rates and full moon directly increases success and NQ rates, aside from its role in x.

Ultimately, the combination of the sheer number of factors that can be involved, the expenses involved in crafting, and the magnitude of the random factors in crafting make detailed analysis of these theories difficult. As Callisto points out, though, this does fall into the "Einstein's belief in God" territory: since there isn't any evidence I'm aware of pointing to the notion that all these theories are the inverse of reality and will give you more failures when you want successes, more NQs when you want HQs, etc., the only risk you face following the more accepted portions of the theory is that one day, if SE ever actually releases the formula, you might lose some face for believing something that wasn't true; a risk the vocal detractors are themselves taking in insisting there are no factors other than randomness. On the other hand, it certainly seems to a lot of people like you have successes/skillups/HQs to gain in the mean time.

[TheGrandMom]

Originally Posted by Callisto

I only tried it once.


























Oh whoops, 'mania'. I was thinking of something else.









You know what, just never mind altogether.

/em sloooooooooowly backs out of the room....