I find your lack of faith disturbing..

[Sabaron]

If anyone has been watching the server currency volumes you will have noticed that since the mass bans started, Asura has gone from the highest currency volume to the lowest. Accompanying this I have also noticed an huge increase in trade shouts in Whitegate.

This is bad. It is indicative of a loss of faith in currency and a return to barter. Diablo II currency was so worthless that no one bothered to trade it. Therefore, the "gil" has become so worthless here, that no one is willing to exchange anything for it.

Am I wrong? Is this as bad as I see it?

[Murphie]

You're probably not entirely wrong, but I think you're worrying needlessly. The economy will be fine, even on Asura.

[Raydeus]

In any case I'm already prepared because I knew this would happen.

That is why I have many mules full with stacks of insect wings, as I'm convinced that will become the new currency in the near future (so I'll be able to buy pretty much everything I want with them). :thumbsup:

And people thought I was crazy... :rolleyes:

[Murphie]

Don't worry, Raydeus, I'll always think you're crazy. :3

[Raydeus]

:thumbsup:

[Blood Red Poet]

Am I wrong?

Cutting to the point, yes.

[Sabaron]

Well, the other thing is that since there is so much less gil, it is indicative of an unwillingness to allow higher-quality gear to drop in value. Listing it on the AH at the desired price produces possibly multiple relists and for multi-million gil items, this equates to a lot of money. Thus shouting preserves the value of the item and advertises it better than bazaar. It still reflects a lack of confidence in the market itself.

And it appears that someone has gotten his old moniker back.

[Nazo]

It will take people a while to adjust to the new economy as they are still stuck with old ideas of what constitutes 'value' but they'll adjust eventually. Trading items for other items is no different really from buying / selling at the new prices, it just hurts less psychologically as you aren't dealing directly with the currency.

Selling something that used to be worth 10M for 1M seems like a big loss but if you can buy something else for 1M that used to cost 10M with the gil then you aren't really any worse off.

[Hyrist]

While this can create difficulty getting more advanced items at first, I really don't believe the trend of a Barter system is really all that bad.

With the direct transfer of goods, one could bypass the gilsellers and RMT, or focused more on exchanges with crafting.

While cheaper goods and crafting supplies will find their ways to an easialy accessable auction house. Many will most likley quest for goods they need with friends now. (Current instanced battle formations cover a lot of what is considered high end gear now, those that are not, can be farmed or fought for supplies, and a crafter located.)

In all realism the Auction house will still be a center of trade. Prices on certain areas will stabilize while others fall when they begin to be considered too common or outdone by other gear.

This reicent encouragement for more direct trades, however, serves as more of a frustration to gilbuyers and RMT providers than it really will for normal players.

Please don't panic.

[IfritnoItazura]

*scratch head*

To OP:

My understanding is that people tend to "lose faith in currency" under hyper-inflation scenarios. Now, you're describing falling prices, so it's a deflation instead.

So, money is worth more--gil is more precious now. I suspect the reason why people want to barter is either because A) they are unwilling to part with now very precious gils, or B) they rather not sell items for "low ball" prices, especially now gil is valued so much more.

I think you have it backwards.

[Pawkeshup]

This was the genesis of my post earlier, about how banning gilsellers will effect our economy.

Ramuh is having the same crisis of gil. Right now, there is a vast split between the have's and have not's. I haven't seen the one for one trade of items yet, but I expect to see it soon as people simply cannot give away higher end gear.

Right now Scorp harness +1's are going for less than I've EVER seen. It's dropping below 2 million with no end in sight.

It will be interesting to see what happens next...

[Vyuru]

I have to admit, I think some areas of the AH are getting really messed up. I logged in the other day, and saw that the Cloth merchant in Al Zhabi wasn't selling anything since his friend was taken prisoner. Now that normally means that there are few weaving goods up on the AH, so I checked.

39 stacks of Wool Thread, all selling for under 16,000, and it takes about 20,000+ and that's including crystals to make.


Yeah.....

[LyonheartLakshmi]

Ramuh is having the same crisis of gil. Right now, there is a vast split between the have's and have not's....

Right now Scorp harness +1's are going for less than I've EVER seen. It's dropping below 2 million with no end in sight.
Hasn't there always been a "vast split between the have's and the have not's", even during the time of rampant inflation?

Also, if the price of stuff like SH+1 continues to drop, doesn't that actually mean the gap is shrinking? The price of low level farmed / crafted materials can't drop much lower. And in some cases, I've seen stuff rise in price. Silver Ingots can easily be produced by the "have nots", and I've seen it rise as of late.

[Ameroth]

I'm not sure if this is because of the economy being screwy or not but:

I was checking the AH for some better gear for my PLD (still only 55 :/ ) and decided that the Irn. Msk. Cuirass was probably a good item for how much I wanted to spend. I checked the +1 just for fun and ended up buying the +1 version for 30k and selling the NQ version for 48k. Profits ftw.

[Visper]

well where People would get killed is selling off those "High end" items now after purchasing them for crazy gil, everyone knows the economy will have to balance out sooner or later and I think its best to hold onto the items instead of the gil at the moment.

Like for me it would be stupid to sell my philomanth stole at the moment because its only worth 6k now, I paid 850k for it last year. I cannot re-coup that money, but if the market finally stops crashing and re-adjusts to the current gil levels, the price should go up a little bit (not to previous highs). Its like the Stockmarket Crash of 1929 - everyones watching their gear (aka stocks) become worthless and are all shouting "Sell, Sell"

[Sabaron]

I think you have it backwards.

It's not backwards. Think about it this way:

Faith in currency is lost any time a major change occurs. Asset-heavy people [merchants and businesses] lose faith in currency when it deflates--they refuse to accept it in exchange for their goods because it isn't worth what they paid in. Deflating currency causes loss in manufacturing. I buy stuff, but now the value of my "stuff" is below what I paid for it so now, instead of making a profit, I turn a net loss.


People who are cash heavy love deflation and hate inflation.
People who are asset heavy love inflation and hate deflation.In either case it is because the people in the "love" scenario are making a profit without doing anything. Both scenarios actually discourage trading (in the sense of cash <-> product) and encourage hoarding--just of a different kind. Hoarding property (in FFXI Real Estate can be equated with gear) during inflation, and hoarding cash during deflation. So both inflation and deflation cause a drop in faith in currency or a drop in faith in product depending on which you have more of.

RMT gil is up 80%. I watch the RMT markets to see how well SE is doing, and so far, not well. While I can't exactly "hate" poor people trying to make money off of people who are willing to pay $75 American for a database entry containing a Haubergeon, I can still find their disruption to a game that I like quite upsetting. I would prefer they all disappear. Demand creates supply. Gilbuyers are the problem, not the gilsellers. A gilbuyer wants to be good, but is not capable of being so on their own, so they employ gilsellers to do their farming/crafting for them. Essentially, in game, gilsellers are employed by gilbuyers. So when you discover a gilbuyer you might be more inclined to report them than a gilseller since a gilbuyer is actually responsible for the creation of the gilseller army in the first place. A gilseller is just a poor worker--they only make like $8 per million (this is an out-dated off-hand third-party reference) and it takes quite a while to generate that kind of currency not to mention the cost of maintenance of their account ($29.99 [initial license cost] + $12.99 per month + $1 per month per mule).

[711rocks]

Holy shit BRP

[Olorin401]

This was the genesis of my post earlier, about how banning gilsellers will effect our economy.
Ramuh is having the same crisis of gil. Right now, there is a vast split between the have's and have not's. I haven't seen the one for one trade of items yet, but I expect to see it soon as people simply cannot give away higher end gear.
Right now Scorp harness +1's are going for less than I've EVER seen. It's dropping below 2 million with no end in sight.
It will be interesting to see what happens next...
I saw sell shouts for stacks of Morion Talthums at 300k yesterday. This economic deflation is getting completely out of hand.

[Mhurron]

I was checking the AH for some better gear for my PLD (still only 55 :/ ) and decided that the Irn. Msk. Cuirass was probably a good item for how much I wanted to spend. I checked the +1 just for fun and ended up buying the +1 version for 30k and selling the NQ version for 48k. Profits ftw.
That has actually nothing to do with wacky economy, it has been like that for a while.

Iron Musketeer's Cuisses Level 50
Iron Musketeer's Cuirass +1 Level 52

The NQ is good for level 50 cap activities, the HQ isn't making the NQ more sought after and valuable.

[Vyuru]

Essentially, in game, gilsellers are employed by gilbuyers. So when you discover a gilbuyer you might be more inclined to report them than a gilseller since a gilbuyer is actually responsible for the creation of the gilseller army in the first place.

Hmmm, I've always approached the subject if there were no gil sellers, there would be no gil buyers.

However, I still think it is better to report the gil buyers, why? They did it once, they'll do it again. Why ban gil seller X when the player will lead you to gil sellers A-Z?

[LyonheartLakshmi]

I'm not sure if this is because of the economy being screwy or not but:

I was checking the AH for some better gear for my PLD (still only 55 :/ ) and decided that the Irn. Msk. Cuirass was probably a good item for how much I wanted to spend. I checked the +1 just for fun and ended up buying the +1 version for 30k and selling the NQ version for 48k. Profits ftw.
This has more to do with how the "+1" is crafted. A new IM Cuirass can only be "created" by purchasing it using CP. The IM Cuirass can be used to crafting recipe as an ingredient. The NQ result is the IM Cuirass +1, while the HQ result is the IM Cuirass +2.

It's not uncommon for the NQ result of a crafting recipe to be priced for less than the cost of the materials to make it. So it's not surprising at all that IM Cuirass has a higher price than the "+1".

[Murphie]

Holy shit BRPHe's been here the entire time.

[IfritnoItazura]

Faith in currency is lost any time a major change occurs.

I'm not an economist, but it seems like you're drastically overstating things.

Money remains money as long as it's an accepted tender in trade. If the majority of people refuse to accept Gil in trade, then, yes, I'd agree people lost faith in that currency.

Here is the real test: Is Gil is worth something?

On IGE's website today, 50 million Gil is priced at 2,331.50 $US for Asura. Obviously, that ignoble firm hasn't "lost faith" in the Vana'diel currency on your server. >_>;

A few random check on FFXIAH shows the auction house is still being used as of today, and since you can only use Gil with AH, I'm forced to conclude Gil has value in-game as well. Of course, not being on that server, I don't have any idea how much people still use Gil compared to bartering, but I suspect the majority of transactions are still Gil based.

By the way, isn't Gil hording the exact opposite of "losing faith in currency"? If a rational agent doesn't have faith in a value holder such as currency (or stock), s/he would dump it ASAP.

[Sabaron]

I didn't say that it wasn't worth something--it obviously is. Perhaps rather than stating lack of confidence in gil, to state lack of confidence in the stability of the Auction House. The post is merely a remark on faith in currency now as opposed to previously as indicated by the higher number of Whitegate trade shouters. People don't want gil for their durables, they want other durables in exchange because they're not sure if what they can sell the item for will allow them to purchase a previously comparable item. It is true, however, that I have a tendency to use exaggerated models to demonstrate subtle changes. This change is only showing a percentage increase in people unwilling to use the AH to exchange items.

This could also be indicative of AH sales fees being too high for the current market situation. If I have to relist a multi-million-gil item several times, that's going to put the hurt on my wallet and I might not be able to get what I want after I sell the item I had and subtract the fees from the proceeds. Of course, this all goes back to the "sliding-scale economic model" I posted in the Ask SE Questions forum some months ago. The fixed floor fees keep Jeuno/Aht sale prices on low-end consumables relatively high, and the percentage fee is prohibitive in an economy where currency is gaining value unless the target item shifts downward as well. While the items on the AH may be selling at roughly the same price, it's quite possible that the listing price and increased AH relists that are making people not want to use the AH.

Of course, it also could just've been a weekend anomaly (e.g. one guy sees someone doing something and says "Hey! That's a good idea! I'll try it too).

[Pawkeshup]

Hasn't there always been a "vast split between the have's and the have not's", even during the time of rampant inflation?

Also, if the price of stuff like SH+1 continues to drop, doesn't that actually mean the gap is shrinking? The price of low level farmed / crafted materials can't drop much lower. And in some cases, I've seen stuff rise in price. Silver Ingots can easily be produced by the "have nots", and I've seen it rise as of late.

Actually the only gap between the have and have not was a BCNM or KSNM drop or two. Plus there was always a way to make additional money.

Now KS teams are done (V Claws are down to 1 mil or below), and most BCNM drops rot on the AH.

Now, you either have a ton of cash or you don't. If you don't, there's not a lot of ways to earn it.

And gap isn't truly shrinking. A lot of items still are being held high. Eventually the gap will collapse, but it's how long until that.

[711rocks]

Who as?

[forevergamer]

hmm..now that you mentioned it..but i wont worry to much.eventually it will turn out right.:thumbsup:


Keep playing!!I do!!!

[Renaissance 2K]

Like for me it would be stupid to sell my philomanth stole at the moment because its only worth 6k now, I paid 850k for it last year. I cannot re-coup that money, but if the market finally stops crashing and re-adjusts to the current gil levels, the price should go up a little bit (not to previous highs). Its like the Stockmarket Crash of 1929 - everyones watching their gear (aka stocks) become worthless and are all shouting "Sell, Sell"
This is a bit different. Philomath Stole is a less-desired drop from the same BCNM that drops the Kraken Club. People spammed the fight, and everything else that dropped from it became worthless. The same thing happened to me with my 900k Ajari Necklace.

This is an item flat-out losing value as a result of a sharply increased supply. Most of the items are dropping their price but not necessarily losing their value because the rest of the economy is dropping as well.