Reliable HQ synthing?

[Spiritbear]

How many lvls above the synth cap will you start making HQs regularly??

[Jei]

11 above skill = tier 1 = 10% HQ chance
31 above skill = tier 2 = 30% HQ chance
51 above skill = tier 3 = 50% HQ chance

[Sabaron]

That's fairly rough. Here's the guide I use:

http://www.spielmansmog.com/guides/hqsynth.php

This is Eruntalon's statistical study on HQ (barring staves/equipment/direction).

I always synth on my proper day and have gotten consistently high HQ rates on Tier II and Tier III. I've also been able to push 50% on Tier II.

All of the data here are for Wind crystal syntheses which is a component of Light (Fire, Wind, Thunder, Light). Some theories claim that Dark component crystals (Earth, Water, Ice, Dark), behave in the opposite way with respect to the moon (e.g. Crafting on a Full Moon with a Dark element crystal yields a better HQ rate), but I've seen no actual data. I just stick to the New Moon, though I may be wrong in doing so.

I also number the tiers in the opposite way Eruntalon does: Tier 0 = <10+, Tier I = 11+, Tier II = 31+, Tier III = 51+. There is also a mysterious Tier IV = 71+ but I've seen no data on it's effects or existance. At Tier III, I get consistent 50% HQ results regardless of the day/moon.

There's a small study of Bar- spells/Elemental Staves here by kamkam (scroll down a bit):

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=24;mid=1168045158199477707;num=6; page=1

Beware, the study is sketchy and very incomplete.

Here's this one too:

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=24;mid=1113595192701341757;num=22 7;page=1

[Wise Donkey]

Jei has it right. I will add two points:

1. This rule applies to the Main craft and all sub-crafts. You must break the tier in each craft. Example: to break Tier 1 on a Scorpion Harness you need Bonecraft 60 and Leathercraft 44.

2. These %s are over time. Don't look to get XX% HQs each session. You will still have good days and bad.