Prices dropping...fast

[Susurrus]

Kinda curious as to why when prices go up fast people start posting about it left and right, but when they drop fast, nobody says anything....

Anyway, why are the prices dropping like this? Everything seems to be going down in price...fast. On the downside I can't sell jack squat cuz I keep getting undercutted....on the upside, maybe I can start to afford some better stuff...

[dirtyclown]

I noticed it too. I was going to sell my Dragvandil when I noticed the price went from 60-70k down to 20k. At the time I was disappointed, but I figured I'd wait for Christmas to roll around before letting it go. It almost looks like our economy is going into a depression, which is probably a good and bad thing. Lower prices, but lower returns at the same time. D:

[neighbortaru]

perhaps the efforts of SE to combat inflation are working? nah... :P

[MisterCookie]

Its probably because the constant speed hack bans are wiping out vasts amounts of money. Since a cheater would most likely be richer than a legit player, a ban would remove a smegload of gil out of the economy.

[Taskmage]

I've been kinda grumbling about it in LS for the past month. Yeah, on the one hand prices are going down, but as you said when prices are consistently falling it makes it hard to sell anything. Then again, I'm running into this problem where I'm having a hard time earning the money to buy the nice items at their new, cheaper prices because the items I usually sell for money have dropped as much or more in value. Plus le change, plus le meme chose?

[Bricklayer]

It's been nice for crafting. Getting a stack of pineapples for about 1k and water crystals for 1k was a highlight of my morning.

[LadyKiKi]

You can buy Pineapples for like 600gil per stack in Kazham I believe. So if you're free pop to Kazham with water crystals to start crafting! :biggrin:

[Bricklayer]

Someday, when I get to Kazham, I'll do that! What's the lowest level I should try to get to Kazham at?

[Maju]

Someday, when I get to Kazham, I'll do that! What's the lowest level I should try to get to Kazham at?

23 for mages, 24 for melee. Some insist on not going until 25, but then again, most also insist you must be 20 before going to Qufim even though worms are excellent exp for L18s.


Anyway, yeah, prices are dropping really fast. Kinda dissapointing how I bought my gluttony sword for 700k and when I wanted to sell it the price had dropped to 200k.

[Dux]

Kazham is one of the more popular EXP zones once you hit 25, just after Qufim Island.

[Cometgreen]

I finally sold my last stack of Darksteel quivers today. I put them up three weeks ago at 158k (average was 160k), and the price had dropped to 80k within that same week. I thought I would be able to make a small profit leveling on the bolts, but I bought the boltheads before those prices plummeted, so I probably lost a few thousand. And an LS mate is now quite pissed that Sleep bolts were severely undercut over the last week.

It's nice when things like food go down, but it's those small or slow markets that hurt. Some NM drops are a good example (Ebow went down to 5.5 million back in August, but hasn't moved since, whereas everything else I used to make money has at least halved in price), as are some of the less popular crafting ingredients. I'm just wondering if I should spend all my money on random gear before December, and sell back at inflated prices.

[Althrun]

That assuming that there's a hyper-inflation this year like there was last year. If SE keeps killing RMT banks and accounts, the RMT sites can't mark down their prices down to $5 for 1m or w/e it was last year. Since they won't be selling gil for cheap in this instance (assuming SE keeps an aggresive stance on this issue), we won't see that hyper inflation where fire crystals were selling for 20k a stack.

If SE drops the ball and doesn't follow through, then yeah, sell high and buy low. just don't count on it this time around.

[Loial]

Taskmage makes a good point. While the prices on some high end stuff might have dropped by 50% or maybe even 66%, the prices on the stuff many people used to farm has dropped by more than 80% in some cases. This is one of those few times when it would've been wiser to keep gil as deflation ensued rather than holding onto gear.

It is interesting to see prices drop this low. These prices are getting closer to the Fall 2004 prices that I remember.

[queenuma]

It would seem that everything I own has dropped dramatically whilst everything I need to buy has stayed constant. There are a few exceptions, Absorb-Dex for example, was 1.2mil this time last year and it is now ~250k.

[Insert]

Kinda dissapointing how I bought my gluttony sword for 700k and when I wanted to sell it the price had dropped to 200k.

I got one better, my gluttony sword was purchased during the "Holiday Gil Sale". You know the one where rock salt went up to like 30K a stack?

My Gluttony sword was purchased for 1.8 Mil (that I had borrowed/farmed), I sold it earlier than I should of to get 700K back out of the deal...it currently sells for 300K:vent:

[Icemage]

I don't think there's much doubt that there will be at least "some" inflation during the Christmas season rush. Given the results from last year, there are a lot of people buying gil as gifts, which takes money out of the hands of gilsellers (who generally don't spend gil) and into the hands of players (who do spend gil), which increases the effective money supply and pushes prices up.

Whether that effect will be somewhat offset by the fact that many players are counting on this and hoarding items to "cash in" is an open question, however. It may be that some items resist the inflationary effect in the short term due to increased temporary supply, perhaps even long enough to weather the temporary inflation.

But overall? I don't think there's any doubt that we'll see some across-the-board inflation after December.


Icemage

[Mhurron]

I don't think there's any doubt that we'll see some across-the-board inflation after December.
Icemage Damn well better. I'm wondering how I'm going to make gil leveling crafts on mules and buying some gear when I get back.

[kiffkin]

I wouldn't mind so much if the deflation was consistant. Speaking as a high level cook, it's fantastic that crystals are so cheap and many ingredients (e.g. fish, meat) are becoming more easily available. I don't mind selling food for less and still being able to keep a decent profit margin, since cooking is how I make most of my gil. Although, when prices are steadily dropping, it has been difficult to find the correct price so that items will sell without drastically undercutting.

On the other hand, I could really do with a couple of Allure Rings - the price has been a steady 700k each on my server for a while. Also, the change in tree cutting harvest rates has had an affect on the price of elemental staves. Apollo's was down to 1.6 million a few weeks ago and was up to 2.3 million the other day; Light/Dark were down around 40k and are up to 200k now.

[framerate]

Vermillion Cloak 6 months ago: 11million
When I bought it: 7.2million (lowest I had ever seen)
Currently: 4.2million.

I'm SMN70 and WHM61. Won't need it much longer and I owe my first 2.8 of that 7.2 million... so if the prices continue to drop I'll be able to sell it and break even with what I owe instead of having a nice tidy profit to buy endgame gear like I had planned ; ;

[Aeolus]

Just keep it till christmas when the rich kids get their presents. Youll get 11mil for it again.

[queenuma]

I don't think this year's Christmas inflation is going to be as bad as previous ones.

[Feenicks]

I bought Raise III for 1.5 million. Don't you even begin to tell me about deflating prices.

[little ninja]

Honestly i think there wont be much of an inflation this yr. More an more players are leaving, An alot of players pretty much have all the gear they need for most there jobs. as for my server i think its pretty muc hit its low, an will just stay where it is with prices. 21mil for a S.H, 1.95mil now, lol

[Vyuru]

I'm all for deflation, I can make 100k+ in an hour or two by doing repeatable quests, sure there's alot of travel time, but I don't have to compete with people undercutting everything on the AH.

Here's to hoping that Woodsman rings have dropped to 320k! I think I currently have 640k.

Dangit, no I don't, I bought all that bard gear ; ;

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

I think this is just a culmulative effect that comes from the ToA expansion.

First off, let's just get this out of the way - The EXP bonus from Sanction not only made VT chaining more viable to players (sad it actually took and EXP bonus, pre-ToA burn PTs were chaining VT long, long ago.) Since we had more to kill than mobs that just dropped earth and water crystals, that brought down the value of other crystals.

Spider webs were rare as far as drops go in ZM zones, but more common in ToA. Crawlers were stingy about dropping silk in CN, but it drops more often from Defoliators, not to mention cocoons. Tigers became more common of an EXP target, so their drops went down as well.

So we have prices down on crystals and all that stuff, and let's not forget all the EXP camps near staging points as well.

Then there's Imperial standing, but not only that, beastmen and kindred seals also drop in ToA zones. You can use your standing for Imperial currency (which can be sold) or use it for Merc Rank gear or even ISNM fights. The frequency of seal drops seems more common, too, and lots of players will farm them and crystals by soloing just outside of Al'Zahbi.

Then there's the ToA and Assault gear. While perhaps not "as good as" abjuration gear or scorpion harnesses, they present very viable alternatives. Cursed pieces are down in value because there are alternatives to them now and they're free with a bit of effort. You don't have to blow millions and came the 21-24 windows anymore if you don't want to. Even some of the more lucrative CoP JSE is starting to come down with this gear out there.

Value of the Scorpion Harness is way down due to Jaridah set too and melees have good reason to choose jaridah over it - not all of them need the evasion, the set offers comprable accuracy and - the real bonus - attack stats.

Now factor in Sanction effects. Food lasts twice as long now. That's big savings for melees, and perma refresh also reduces the need for things like a Vermy Cloak or juice.

Finally, this new wave of RMT, they've felt the impacts prior to many of their accounts being deleted. ToA has devalued their other avenues for cash - they're going right for sky and kings now (not that they hadn't in the past, they're just being more obvious about it). Why? Abjurations. Funny SE has mentioned that they're changing things regarding those as well, this could either be SE's coup de grace for SE or their biggest screw-up. I'm hoping these new endgame alliance zones are where they drop.

[jwalton]

If you want the real reason prices have been dropping, it's due to Sega's release of Phantasy Star Universe. It's the first real competition Final Fantasy XI has ever had in Japan due to it being a PC and PS2 release, and it has managed to steal the attention of a fair number of players. It went through a rough start, much like Final Fantasy XI did with some initial server issues, but they've been resolved and the official service is restarting tonight. The US release is due in on October 24th, and you can expect yet more players to jump ship then.

There's good reason why Square Enix said Aht Urhgan was going to probably be their last expansion... competition was on its way, and FFXI's engine really limits what they can do (see: besieged), so they're looking to the future with that next-gen MMO they're working on.

[Jei]

phantasy star is doing good? How is the game's feed back so far? When is it coming to US?

[jwalton]

It's running stable now, and the first update kicks in on October 5th with some unlocked content. They seem to be following Final Fantasy XI's model, releasing small bits at a time. The initial network problems during the early September launch resulted in Sega postponing official service to October 1st and extending the free trial month all the way to October 31st to compensate players while they worked on fixing all the network stability issues. With this in mind, no one really knows how often they intend to update and unlock content, though they stated in early interviews that it'd be on a fairly consistent basis. Sega also stated that online mode is supposed to continue the storyline that takes place in offline mode (the offline mode is very JRPG with its presentation with lots of cutscenes and voice acting), but that has yet to be seen. Perhaps the October 5th update will clarify things.

Aside from network stability issues at first, the game as a whole is very solid, though it is a very different game than Final Fantasy XI. Those who want a simpler, quicker paced game where you romp through instanced zones with friends and kill monsters en-masse without worrying about player level seperation will really enjoy the game. It is by no means a MMORPG, but is an online RPG in its simplest form, with excellent gameplay. There's been nothing but positive press in regards to its gameplay... Famitsu gave it a 35/40, which is a very good score.

US release is October 24th.

This is a good video to watch if you want to see various parts of the game (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoIMclvf-hQ).

[DakAttack]

People will play PSU, but they'll always come back to FFXI.

[little ninja]

People will play PSU, but they'll always come back to FFXI.

Im starting to believe that this isnt the case anymore.

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

:rofl: PSU :rofl:

Just wait for the US release and watch all the NA and EU kiddies wreck it with their Action Replays and Codebreakers in less than a month. Sega never really addressed any of the issues of PSO had until Blue Burst - took 'em five years - and they only fixed the experience for PC users and not the userbases on Xbox, Gamecube or Dreamcast. Classy.

After all the BS people had to put up with in those broken versions, I'm amazed anyone is excited a new Phantasy Star game that's online. They'll be back to FFXI soon enough.

I'll just be there for the single player and maybe the free month online - I like the series itself, the style and the music - but if i'm paying to play something, it had better be a real MMORPG and PSU just isn't that.

[little ninja]

Since when has an MMO actually delt with issues. FFXI is just as hacked as PSO was. Fish botting is allowed. an the other half of the pop is running bots to claim mobs. An thats just the very tip of the S.E iceberg.

Will people come back? To be honest whats there to come back to for some peeps. Especially when you done with city missons, Z mission, CoP missions . Sky is pretty much dead nowadays. not to many are into the whole dyn anymore, everyone an there mother hates besieged on my server. Assault is losing its zest in a hurry.

[DakAttack]

PSU is just a glorified PSO, nothing has really changed. Character customization is nice and all, but doesn't make a game all by itself. From what I've seen you're still just running through the same areas killing the same things over and over, hoping for a rare drop. The graphics look the same as well, bright and simple like a western game.

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

Since when has an MMO actually delt with issues. FFXI is just as hacked as PSO was. Fish botting is allowed. an the other half of the pop is running bots to claim mobs. An thats just the very tip of the S.E iceberg.

Will people come back? To be honest whats there to come back to for some peeps. Especially when you done with city missons, Z mission, CoP missions . Sky is pretty much dead nowadays. not to many are into the whole dyn anymore, everyone an there mother hates besieged on my server. Assault is losing its zest in a hurry.

Sorry, but you suffer from the mistruth that most people are in endgame, which is fueled by visiting fourms such as this one - that's just not the case. There's plenty left to do for much of the player base. Players in endgame do not represent the whole community. I'm sorry if you have friends leaving, but the longer you play is what's making you percieve things as such.

FFXI is not "just as hacked" as PSO, hacking in PSO took place on the client-side and will take place in PSU because it is easy for anyone to do so. FFXI and other MMORPGs do not suffer as much from this because character data is not stored on the client side and whatever foreign data that does slip in can been detected, flagged or screened out by the DNAS system. DNAS can only be as good as what its told to look for and has to be updated. That's why you see so many bannings/temp bans lately. SE has accumulated a lot of different data and is not going for one type of hack like P2P games tend to. If you can invalidate several programs at once, that discourages the hacker greatly, taking out one little hack at a time wouldn't phase them.

PSO had rampant MPK problems and mass duping as well. These are game-breaking issues that far trancend somone botting claim. Duping and MPK provide direct results, when someone bots claim they can still die or lose claim and drops are not garunteed. And really, most of the claim drama is just that - drama. Mass duping and MPK were 100 successful in PSO and Sega did nothing to stop it, this made the game immensely unenjoyable and it all came from the client's side.

PSU may be DNAS-enabled, but its just a program licensed out by Sony, its up to the developers to use it to prevent issues and detect hacks. But not even Sony themselves uses it to its potential - Champions of Norrath, anyone? Same issues as PSO. Diablo II on Battle.net? Same thing.

If I'm wrong and PSU has server-side saves as Blue Burst supposedly did, that removes most of the duping and MPK potential. That alone would make the game a bit more appealing.

[Jei]

SEGA had their lesson from PSO. PSU might be better you never know. Give it some time.
Not that I'm going to get the game tho.

[jwalton]

From what I've seen you're still just running through the same areas killing the same things over and over, hoping for a rare drop.Isn't that, oh I dunno... pretty much what we've all been doing on Final Fantasy XI since day one in some form? Coffer key drops ring a bell? Rare/EX items needed for missions sound familiar? Phantasy Star Universe is also going to have its own storyline that's unlocked as time goes by, so that aspect is a non-factor.
The graphics look the same as well, bright and simple like a western game.Are you for real? Do you even realize how ridiculous you sound? You think this:
http://synbios.net/games/PSU/screenshots/beta/0052.jpg
And this:
http://synbios.net/games/PSU/screenshots/beta/0072.jpg
And this:
http://synbios.net/games/PSU/screenshots/retail/0002.jpg
...resemble western games? Are we even in the same dimension? Phantasy Star Universe looks way more JRPG than Final Fantasy XI does. You know, like Star Ocean, Xenosaga, all those crazy RPGs that come out in Japan? And FYI, when screenshots of FFXI first came out in Japan before the game had released, Japanese gamers were complaining that the game looked too western! Come on, seriously, you're really reaching.
If I'm wrong and PSU has server-side saves as Blue Burst supposedly did, that removes most of the duping and MPK potential. That alone would make the game a bit more appealing.
Open mouth, insert foot. Phantasy Star Universe saves all data server-side, and handles all aspects including combat, server-side.
You know folks, Final Fantasy XI is a perfectly enjoyable game to many, and some folks have gotten tired of it and moved on to Phantasy Star Universe. It is perfectly acceptable to enjoy both games, or stick with one and enjoy just that. The bashing really needs to stop, alright? If you're going to take cheapshots at the game, at least do a little research first.

[dirtyclown]

I plan on getting a copy of PSU. Dunno if I'll go online with it, but I'll definitely make use of splitscreen if that option is available.

[Jei]

they complaint FF11 looks too western? : / interesting
did they complain about FF12? Since it looks so similar to 11...

[jwalton]

Nah, it was just that Final Fantasy XI was a major change in art direction for the series, and the Japanese weren't used to it. But they changed their opinion once they started playing. Final Fantasy XI had a rough start, but it steadily grew and is a very large game with a strong playerbase, far different than what the game was like when it first launched...

On Phantasy Star Universe, here's one of the more interesting cutscenes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmWAL-UgFA) from the offline story mode, though keep in mind, it's major spoilers. It also happens to show that Sega really means business with this game, and it definitely isn't a repeat of what Phantasy Star Online was. I'm really curious to see how Sega handles the online story mode and if it'll compare to what Final Fantasy XI's done so far. Four more days until Sega puts up their first update...

[DakAttack]

Nah, it was just that Final Fantasy XI was a major change in art direction for the series, and the Japanese weren't used to it. But they changed their opinion once they started playing. Final Fantasy XI had a rough start, but it steadily grew and is a very large game with a strong playerbase, far different than what the game was like when it first launched...

Western art is very vibrant, while eastern art is usually made up of more earthen-based colors. I highly doubt anybody thought FFXI looked too western, visit an art meusem sometime. The PSU screenshots remind me of WoW in terms of color, but I'm happy to see the character models are more lifelike. The clothes look very Kingdom Hearts in style for some reason, I'm not sure if that style is seen anywhere else.

That last pic is terrible. -_-

[Pai Pai Master]

No need for this to become any sort of FFXI vs. PSU discussions. They're very different games, so let's keep the discussion on topic.

As the devteam stated at TGS, they'll be working overtime to continue bringing prices down. It seems they're pretty serious about it finally, as they've stated that once prices are down to an acceptable level and inflation has been either slowed considerably or stopped completely, they're going to shift their focus to hackers and botters.

So, while it's good news for many and bad news for some, don't expect the prices to stay the way they are. With Christmas coming up there'll be a lot of people buying gil, but the devteam's likely going to beef up their inflation-fighting efforts even more in the next few months in order to bring it to a stop.

[Mhurron]

don't expect the prices to stay the way they are. Most radical changes end up going to exteems at first, but any dynamic system will eventually find an equilibrium. So chances are prices will get very low before they rebound back to where they will end up staying for a little until the next major changes upsets the ballence again.
This year was just bad because you had the hyperinflation at the early part of the year. Then when it started to settle again, ToAU hit and messed everything up again with new sources for some items and new rare materials. Then there were several very public bannings that removed a good chunk of gil from circulation. I doubt next year will be quite as bad.

[Raitox]

Any word on the price for PSU monthly?

[jwalton]

Western art is very vibrant, while eastern art is usually made up of more earthen-based colors. I highly doubt anybody thought FFXI looked too western, visit an art meusem sometime.
We're talking about video games, not art museums. Go ahead and try to tell me that most Japanese games, particularly RPGs, aren't colorful. Besides that, you're quite incorrect. Some quick Googling results in the below:

FFXI preview on Eurogamer (http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=2338) (see: last paragraph)
There's a few message board discussions on the matter as well as a Slashdot article, and I recall The GIA (old, very awesome gaming website that most here probably don't remember) having an article on it a long time ago as well. You can check yourself if you want, but what I said is true. There's no sense in my making stuff up.

By the way Raitox, word on the street is $9.99/month, but Sega hasn't given the official word for stateside players. In Japan, exchange rates amount to about $8/month.

[Demo]

man I tell you, you just cant please people... complain when prices are high, now complain cause they are too low...good grief.

[Taskmage]

/sigh I thought this thread was about the economy. Now it's another My MMO vs Your lolMMO thread.:worry:

[Mhurron]

/sigh I thought this thread was about the economy. Now it's another My MMO vs Your lolMMO thread.:worry: Well of course. If it wasn't WoW's fault, it had to be some other game that 'ffxi players are flocking to.' After all, it couldn't be anything that SE did to improve things now could it. Of course not because everybody knows they don't care about their players, right?

[jwalton]

That's a fairly profound post, Mhurron. However, the fact remains that prices across all world servers started taking a TREMENDOUS plunge at the exact same time Phantasy Star Universe made its debut. Japanese player numbers also dropped somewhat during the last few weeks, and Phantasy Star Universe's servers were overloaded with 120000+ registrations on day one despite the registration server having problems. How convenient. World of Warcraft, in all it's 6+ million player glory, never even touched FFXI's economy because the Japanese don't care about western-made games, so trying to use that dead horse for leverage is wasted effort. Phantasy Star Universe is a Japanese-made videogame.

Believe what you wish. I beg my leave. Take care, and have fun.

[Bricklayer]

That's a fairly profound post, Mhurron. However, the fact remains that prices across all world servers started taking a TREMENDOUS plunge at the exact same time Phantasy Star Universe made its debut. Japanese player numbers also dropped somewhat during the last few weeks, and Phantasy Star Universe's servers were overloaded with 120000+ registrations on day one despite the registration server having problems. How convenient. World of Warcraft, in all it's 6+ million player glory, never even touched FFXI's economy because the Japanese don't care about western-made games, so trying to use that dead horse for leverage is wasted effort. Phantasy Star Universe is a Japanese-made videogame.

Believe what you wish. I beg my leave. Take care, and have fun.

This is an interesting coincidence, but I don't know if it is really sufficient to describe the recession currently going on in FFXI. If migration were an issue, I don't think I would have seen 4000+ players on Ramuh over the weekend. The population is still there. It just seems that people are less willing to spend money. This suggests to me that either 1) people don't have money to spend, or 2) people are holding their money, because they're worried about buying items that depreciate immediately upon purchase. Given time, I agree that this trend will stabilize and people will start spending again. It will be interesting if overall pricing stabilizes at a lower level than before the recession.

[Pai Pai Master]

Okay, goodbye. Have fun.

Back on topic, please?

[Theyaden]

I think the prices going down are largly due to the recient mass bannings of assorted cheaters. Prices seem to drop everytime SE decides to eliminate a large block of individuals as has happened before and will likely happen again at different intervals. I applaud SE for being willing to do this with regards to the warp and speed hacks which seem to be whats taking the hits curently.

I'm not completely sure what to think of the price drops. My crafting work is definately easier with fire crystals going for just 1-2k a stack on Garuda. Although Silk thread has dropped to the point I don't bother to farm it anymore unless it's an area I can skillup on them due to the low drop rate others do still hunt it regularily so the supply will remain. Curently I'm leveling up a little crafting since that will always be a good investment to take advantage of cheaper skillups. The economy will go on and if SE keeps up their work nailing those with a propensity to cheat they are likely thinning out the crowd of gilbuyers inadvertantly (I don't know for certain I base this on the concept someone willing to cheat for convenience with a speed or warp hack is also more likely for convenience to buy gil for the convenience of not having to farm, BCNM, Garison, Craft)

My personal advise for those that have considered leveling a craft is enjoy the prices while they last since it's cheaper right now to do that it will be later down the line.

[little ninja]

Thing im noticing is an over supply of alot of farmable stuff. first week of sept there was 30+ stacks of slime oils in all 4 nations. an in jeuno i seen around 77 stacks of cuttings. while buying was still steady there is just a mass flood of craftables across the board.

Another thing i noticed is the only way i can make any money crafting nowadays is if i can HQ 3/4 of my synths. otherwise i take a hard hit to my profits. Even if i farm most of my things. it ends up i could have just sold the farmed items for more of a profit...

I am willing to start taking bets that 1/4 of my server is now g/s populated. an around another 1/4 are 24/7 mules an fish botters.... An the rest of the server stands afk infront of the whitegate A.H

[little ninja]

man I tell you, you just cant please people... complain when prices are high, now complain cause they are too low...good grief.

There is reason to be concerned an curious on such a matter. If your not may i suggest learning something about American History. One event in mind, the Stock Market Crash...

[Taskmage]

man I tell you, you just cant please people... complain when prices are high, now complain cause they are too low...good grief.Plus le change, plus le meme chose? ^^

[Icemage]

Plus le change, plus le meme chose? ^^
Oy, please spell it correctly. :)

Plus ça change, plus c'est le meme chose.

For those who are illiterate in French, it translates roughly as "The more things change, the more they stay the same."


Icemage

[Taskmage]

Bah I'll just stick to english next time ^^;

But yeah, concerns about fish botting and the like aside, it's generally recognized that falling prices are a good thing. Despite the economy improving as a whole, expensive items are still expensive in relation to other items, and the people who want them are still going to grumble about how difficult they are to obtain, especially when as noted earlier the more frequently traded items that most people use for an income are going to adjust in price faster than slower moving luxury goods. So are people still going to complain? Yeah, of course. Just take it as a sign that the world's still turning.

I am concerned about fish botting though. The recent deflation has either underscored the existing problem or forced the botters to become more bold and seek other markets to wreck for their money. Sole are 10k a stack on Lakshmi now, Bream 6k/stack, Grimmonite 3k each, Gigant Squid 5k each ... these are the highest level fish with common practical uses. The only fish whose prices haven't tanked are Noble Lady and Shall Shell, which are sold from an NPC in Bibiki, and Bhefel Marlin, which has a practically interminable demand based on the demand for Mercurial Kris.

[Caspian]

Oy, please spell it correctly. :)
Plus ça change, plus c'est le meme chose.
For those who are illiterate in French, it translates roughly as "The more things change, the more they stay the same."
Icemage
Knowitall. :P

I do believe that SE's attempts have played a role in the deflation. But I don't think its solely responsible. It is likely that IGE and other RMT sites and their corresponding accounts are hording gil right now. Pretending they have less than they do, selling for higher prices and such. I don't think the mass inflation we saw last year will happen, but I do think it will happen and it will still be fairly big.
Either way, I've been buying a few certian pieces of equipment that skyrocketed up to 100x their pre Xmas prices. Prices go up, I'm richer than Bill Gates. Prices stay the same, I can just sell them back for minor overall loss. I've already grown used to the current amount of money I have, figure anything I sell them for at all now is a bonus.

[Pai Pai Master]

I currently have about 1,502 gil, so this whole issue doesn't really phase me at the moment. I'll figure out how I feel about it later. XD

[Drive]

Offtopic: Jwalton: Those PSU pics reminded me of Earth and Beyond from westwood studios and EA. And that ethan vs magashi cutscene was one of the worst fight scenes my eyes have ever watched.

On-topic: The price falling doesn't really bother me much. Mainly because I'm constantly poor so everyone falling to what I can afford is a plus. Like erase for 100k is something beautiful for me but a horror for BCNM40 goers.

[Icemage]

You know what I find most fascinating about this discussion is the dynamics of the economy.

Long before the Christmas rush of last year, there was rampant speculation inside and outside of the FFXI fishing communities about what sort of impact that fishbotters had on the economy. I'd say that the recent deflation is a strong point in favor of the theory (which I subscribe to) that of all the sources of "new money", fishbotting was accounting for the vast majority.

Note that, despite the increase in the number of fishbotters, none of them are now adding new gil into the economy. In fact, they're taking money out because they're selling their wares on the AH and racking up fees and receiving gil from other players (i.e. "old" gil), instead of receiving new gil from NPCs or monsters.

Compare to a couple years ago, where it was easily possible for a single fisherman (botter or otherwise) to make at least a couple hundred thousand "new" gil in a single day via rusty caps (and even afterwards, via black ink).

After Square-Enix squeezed the life out of new gil produced via fishing, prices started stabilizing dramatically. Coincidence? You decide.


Icemage

[Omgwtfbbqkitten]

That's a fairly profound post, Mhurron. However, the fact remains that prices across all world servers started taking a TREMENDOUS plunge at the exact same time Phantasy Star Universe made its debut.

The "plunge" was taking place well before PSU's release, however. It wasn't sudden on my server by any means. Its been a steady decrease ever since the initial hype of the expansion died down and ISNMs came into the picture, amoung other things.

[Aeni]

1. Inflation won't be as bad this year.
2. Less RMT 'gil dumping' will be available this year, now that SE is cracking down actively against known RMT (With possible lock on IP/Regional information)

As the game matures, more and more players will have access to rare/ex items, which often times replaces the more expensive rare items. I attribute this to the really nice drops you can get from doing assaults and having an more NMs available that drop rare/ex items or highly sought after items.

As more and more players start to get things like an SH, those items will no longer be considered of worth. Therefore, these items will be commonly traded the way NPC sold items currently are.

You can also chalk it up to both the greed of RMT (Having to constantly dump something like Vclaw with rapidity into the market) and also the general shift in population (That of players leaving the game)

The older the game gets, the less and less players will come on to replace those that leave. There will then come a threshold in which the game can no longer be self-sustaining and will start to cost the company, at which time SE will probably announce the retirement of the game.

With a smaller population of new players in comparison to the growing size of "veteran player" population, you will actually see (in general) the continuation of deflation. Demand will continue to diminish for products and the supply will rise in ever increasing quantities. Again, there's two things to blame in both RMT and a decrease in population.

[Susurrus]

I don't know where you're seeing this decrease in population....I still /sea the same amount of people on Ragnarok that I always have. Maybe things are different on you server, Hades?

[Pai Pai Master]

An excellent point, Icemage, although it does not make any justification for the act of fish-botting (not that you're necessarily saying it does or does not).

Fish-botting as an example though, there are just too many factors that come into play inside and outside of the game to point at one thing and say "this is the reason prices are dropping."

SE's been doing far more recently than they have in the past, but there are also plenty of other reasons for why the economy is acting like it is now. The best we can hope for is that both the negative and positive changes we see in the next few months don't have so much of an effect on the economy that it makes the game less enjoyable.

[little ninja]

LoL ICEMAGE your using some of my old quotes from the fishing site. I stated they make easy 200k min to over 1mil a day. ahh fun times,

But honestly gimping fish sales to npc didnt deflate the economy. the big factor was removing 300million from the servers. thats the #1 cause, After that prices started to drop a bit. Then people trying to make a ton of gil flooded the market with old gear, an highend gear hoping to get every cent they could inhopes of rebuying ti for a cheaper price. so during the horrid inflation u had 1-2 haubys up, 2 weeks later you had 14 up.

After that ToUA came out, an it introduced other gear options, an better drop rates on fangs, an spider webs. But like its already been stated. Gil is being sold at like 35 per mil, last your around christmas 7bucks per mil. i definately feel the RMT are hording the gil to flood the markets.

[Likibiki]

Fish botters have popped up in Windy waters on Pandy now, by Ensasa's shop.

They just fish up moat carp/gold carp until they hit fatigue, then log off onto another character (all naked mithra btw ^^) and do it again... all day every day.

It won't be adding much gil (Although stacks of gold carp sell nicely to npc's) but it will be adding some, especially when you consider they do it 24/7...

[Icemage]

Fish botters have popped up in Windy waters on Pandy now, by Ensasa's shop.
They just fish up moat carp/gold carp until they hit fatigue, then log off onto another character (all naked mithra btw ^^) and do it again... all day every day.
It won't be adding much gil (Although stacks of gold carp sell nicely to npc's) but it will be adding some, especially when you consider they do it 24/7...
This is peanuts considering they used to fish 24/7 for black sole, which would sell for 2600 or so each.

P.S. to little ninja: I didn't quote you because those figures have been widely discussed on a number of forums (not just you-know-where). By the by, the only time fishermen could make 1M "new" gil per day was during the early part of the rusty cap fishing craze.


Icemage

[Likibiki]

Yeah, it's a lot less, but there's 10-15 bots in Windy Waters (maybe more in other zones too) and if they get 5-6 Gold Carp per bot per fishing session (which is doable), that's 1.5k ish. That's at least 20k per session - or roughly an hour - which is 440k a day, just from NPC'd fish.

Chances are they're fishing carps in other places too, which means even more money.

No, it's not on the Black Sole or Rusty Cap level, but it's enough to make a noticeable difference I think.

[Taskmage]

There are a handful of bots by the fishing guild on my server, which does a bit to explain bream being 4500 a stack now. What really sucks is the bot in SSG. It's pretty amusing seeing it get one-shat by a Big Jaw every ten minutes, but really unamusing to see it catching its share of grimmonite in the intervening time.

I can appreciate that the botters pushing their wares through the AH is significantly better for the economy as a whole than the old practice of selling to NPCs, but that thought is a small comfort when I'm scrounging through food and fish listings trying to find anything that still turns a fair profit.

[little ninja]

The time line is set. Oct less an less items appear on A.H. mid Nov, there is an odd increase of items. that starts the inflation of the market. Dec will introduce gil prices slashed.

So now servers with 1bil in ciculation will now notice 10bil in ciculations.

[Malevolent]

Yeah on fairy prices have been slowly dropping. My earth dark and light ores havn't been selling too great. Just noticed prices went from 600k to 300k hopping Utsusemi ichi and Ni will drop as well... crossing my fingers.

[queenuma]

I looked on the AH last night and there were 17 Scorpion Harnesses listed. Put in a few cheeky bids but looks like no-one was trying to skip the AH fees or just show off. I don't think I've ever seen this many SH being sold at the same time, coincidentally there was also 4 SH+1s, 6 Haubys, 1 Hauby +1 and no Byrnies, Hauberks or their respective +1s.

Maybe people have realised they don't need to overdoes on the acc equipment in the new zones.

[Aeni]

I don't know where you're seeing this decrease in population....I still /sea the same amount of people on Ragnarok that I always have. Maybe things are different on you server, Hades?

Bolded for emphasis. You mean after 3+ years and expanding into new territories (Namely, EU) that the population hasn't increased? So, what has happened? Yes, it's been decreasing.

JP/NA players leaving
EU players coming on to replace

= Same number of people.

Now, fast forward a year from now. What happens when EU players start to leave and SE don't expand into *gasp* China or Russia or Africa, etc... Who's going to replace them?

[little ninja]

I looked on the AH last night and there were 17 Scorpion Harnesses listed. Put in a few cheeky bids but looks like no-one was trying to skip the AH fees or just show off. I don't think I've ever seen this many SH being sold at the same time, coincidentally there was also 4 SH+1s, 6 Haubys, 1 Hauby +1 and no Byrnies, Hauberks or their respective +1s.
Maybe people have realised they don't need to overdoes on the acc equipment in the new zones.

There are other cheaper alternetives now to those gears. + the next wave of players finally realized. you miss just as much with 43acc, as you do with 10 acc. Throw in the fact things like D-ignot an V-claw are easy to obtain during KS30.

Yeah during MMO FFXI there is always a new wave of players to replensih those who left. jpn > na > ps2 > euro > 360. An dont forget the waves of RMT added in. Sure you may see 3k peeps on, but how many are actually playing an not bazaar mules, how many arent RMT sworms.

[Jei]

I think bastore bream still selling for 7-8k/stack to NPC. There used to be a lot of bots just catching breams all day at the fishing guild. Pretty sure they can still do that efficiently with 6-7 accounts fishing at once. They'll end up with 9-10 stacks, 70-100k per character before they hit fatigue. Not something a normal fisher would want to do either because of the low bite rate of bream there.
haven't been to fishing guild lately, don't know if they're still there.

[Vaigrant]

Bolded for emphasis. You mean after 3+ years and expanding into new territories (Namely, EU) that the population hasn't increased? So, what has happened? Yes, it's been decreasing.

JP/NA players leaving
EU players coming on to replace

= Same number of people.

Now, fast forward a year from now. What happens when EU players start to leave and SE don't expand into *gasp* China or Russia or Africa, etc... Who's going to replace them?

As long as an MMORPG is enjoyable itll run and have an influx of new players. I doubt we have to worry about FFXI shutting down soon, there havent been many MMO's that have actually Shut Down, I mean look at EQ 1, its still up and running and really its not all that great.

If you ask me its mostly from the loss of all that Gil and RMT. All markets experiance rises and falls, and plus now its time for school so alot of people arent playing as much as they did during the Summer Time. Not to mention the number of accounts that SE has Banned and Suspended for RMT and 3rd Party Software in recent months. I highly doubt FFXI is in any danger of "Shutting Down" for quite some time, if EQ1 is still running about 7-8 years after its initial launch then FF has a long way to go.

[little ninja]

As long as an MMORPG is enjoyable itll run and have an influx of new players. I doubt we have to worry about FFXI shutting down soon, there havent been many MMO's that have actually Shut Down, I mean look at EQ 1, its still up and running and really its not all that great.
If you ask me its mostly from the loss of all that Gil and RMT. All markets experiance rises and falls, and plus now its time for school so alot of people arent playing as much as they did during the Summer Time. Not to mention the number of accounts that SE has Banned and Suspended for RMT and 3rd Party Software in recent months. I highly doubt FFXI is in any danger of "Shutting Down" for quite some time, if EQ1 is still running about 7-8 years after its initial launch then FF has a long way to go.

last year my server was well over 3k, on the weekends it was over 4k. now today from 7-10 NA prime time, we barely seen 2k members. An how many of those are 24/7 bazaars, how many of those are botters or RMT is beyond me. so what maybe 1500 are active players, if even that

So will S.E shut downs the server anytime soon. not likely. But it is obvious that the more an more peeps are moving on. and as long as S.E is turning a profit, i see them leaving the servers up til they implode.