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View Full Version : Maybe the game is telling me to quit crafting...

LyonheartLakshmi
08-21-2006, 08:29 AM
3 days. 5 attempts at Scorpion Harness. 3 Critical Failures. 9 million gil down the drain.

So that means I now have 8 HQs and 5 lost V. Claws in 40 attempts. Strangely enough, 4 of those 5 critical failures have happened in South Sandy.

I'm not too proud to admit it: I'm superstitious. I refuse to craft any more Scorpion Harnesses while I'm at San d'Oria. Hopefully, I can get another Tanner's Belt soon.
mikesjustice
08-21-2006, 09:32 AM
8 HQ's out of 35 successes is about right for the HQ average, or about 23% HQ average atm. 5 Fails out of 40 attempts is about 1 fail too many at this point, or over the average. I would bet more than likely your next 10 synths will not fail.
LyonheartLakshmi
08-21-2006, 10:53 AM
So 1 failure in 10 attempts is the average you expect, Mike? I've seen other posts where people estimate around 1 failure in 20 attempts. Maybe I've just been lucky for a long stretch, and got profoundly unlucky the last few days.

I'm still going to avoid SH attempts in Sandy though :worry:
mikesjustice
08-22-2006, 08:25 AM
I don't have my exact numbers, but I'm like 53 HQ / 147 with 15 failures. I'm pretty certain 10% is failure rate. In all my crafts so far I've never averaged higher than 10% failure.
LyonheartLakshmi
08-22-2006, 08:55 AM
Wow, your HQ rate is better than 1/3rd. If I were HQing at that rate, I'd probably be less concerned about 10% failure rate.

Oh, who am I kidding. Even if my HQ rate was 99.9%, I'd still hate that .1% failure rate. Stupid half-empty glass!
Skoal
08-22-2006, 08:56 AM
If I were to listen to anyone about crafting, it would be mike.
mikesjustice
08-22-2006, 10:07 AM
I had an even higher HQ rate. Just the last 3 days or so I HQ'd 0, NQ'd 14ish straight, and lost 2 claws to bring me closer to my averages you see mentioned.

The system is forcing me to pay back from my good fortune now lol.
Shadowneko
08-22-2006, 12:24 PM
My friend Lothriel(high-level boneworker) used to say that those claws break easily. I know she lost a lot trying to make scorpys one day(aww man the claws broke!)...
LyonheartLakshmi
08-22-2006, 12:49 PM
My friend Lothriel(high-level boneworker) used to say that those claws break easily. I know she lost a lot trying to make scorpys one day(aww man the claws broke!)...
Prevailing wisdom is that certain recipes have a special property such that a failure results in a particular ingredient being lost 100% of the time. Scorpion Harness / Venomous Claw seems to be one such example.