Debunking (Proving?) Directional Synthing

[sevenpointflaw]

As I'm plowing through the silk road (that is, gathering materials to make Hunter's Cotton), I decided that directional synthing is just a wive's tale. Okay, so I have an opinion, whoop-dee-doo, right?

Here's the thing. I look at the game and the thigns that we know affect it. Moon phase, day of the week, direction faced. All of these supposedly affect crafting (and some of them affect other things as well.)

Brakki made the suggestion in his dragoon guide's thread that BLM that don't face the direction of thier element when casting are somehow negligent in thier duties, so I went out for the shere purpose of being able to say "I tested it myself" and spent a lot of time casting spells in various directions.

There was less than a 1% varience in spell damage, cure power, etc. No difference in how much Stoneskin absorbed, sneak and invis were just as random as ever, and frankly it was a pointless excersise other than to say "I did it."

By the same token, there is a noticable, documentable, marked difference when casting spells on various days. This has been tested, proven, retested, and reproven so many times its rediculous. And the day/moon thing carries over to many other documentable and documented aspects of the game.

But nowhere else other than crafting does the idea of direction come into play. It's my personal opinion that SE is not so asanine about game mechanics that they would add one "elemental effect" to crafting that they didn't add to everything else - especially when you take into account that every other "elemental effect" is fairly well global.

Please forgive my long winded ramblings, I can never say anything to the point, but I'm getting there, I promise.

Anyhow, after a lot of reasearch, I can see exactly where the idea of directional synthing comes from. Speak to a Tarutaru in Windurst, and he'll show you a star chart.

If you ignore what the star chart actually looks like, and base your directional synthing entirely, and purely off the way the map is labeled, then you come up with very familiar crafting compass. That is, traveling North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West, North West, you get Dark, Light, Ice, Wind, Earth, Lightning, Water, and Fire respectively.

What originally sparked my curiousity in all this, however, is that the star-chart does not follow a normal map's labeling. That is, North is the top of the map, South is the bottom of the map. But East is the left side of the map, and West is the right side of the map. Again, if you follow the lables of the map, this matches up with the directional synthing.

So the question that nagged me was WTF? How is it that directional synthing is based off a map that is mislabled? I can only assume that someone went outside at night and looked at the sky, and actually faced the stars as they appear on the map, and realized that the map was in fact labeled correctly even if it is shown "backwards."

I've attached a copy of the in game star chat for those who are unfamiliar with what it looks like.

As I write this, my own curiosity has me standing out in Eastern Altepa Desert atop a particularly high dune where the night sky is visible as far as the eye can see. Assuming the double earth weather goes away and I can make out the sky through the dust clouds.

Edit: There were dust storms all night. I didn't get a good view, and I can't think of anywhere else that offers such a clear view of the sky. Has anyone else personally gone out and compared the stars in the sky to the crafting compass or star chart?

Edit: Day two standing out in Altepa, and sure enough, the map is labeled correct. Facing the direction according to the actual labels shows the stars where you would expect them.

Continuing with my rambles, it occurs to me that the only way to settle this issue really is to break down, bite the bullet, and suffer though outrageous ammounts of lost gil to get an answer.

So that's what I'm going to do. Before I do it though, I want to come up with a game plan. I want to start fairly general (basicly, less controlled) and see if some generalized trens can be established to support one theory or the other, and that's why I'm here.

No, I don't have test results, yet. At least, nothing other than "it seems to be this way if you do this..." just like everyone else. I want help coming up with things that we know affect the game, and for those interested in actually working out game mechanics (Icemage, are you out there?) I would love to have input on any variables that I may have missed.

So, what are the variables in question? Here's what I can come up with off the top of my head, some of which have been proven, some of which have been theorized, some of which are just plain silly if you ask me.

1.) Cardinal Direction Stong/Neutral/Weak Against Element
2.) Day of the Week Strong/Neutral/Weak Against Element
3.) Wheather Effects Strong/Neutral/Weak Against Element
4.) HQ Elemental Staves Strong/Neutral/Weak Against Element
5.) Phase of the Moon Strong/Neutral/Weak against Craft
6.) Moghancements for Craft/Desynth/Element

I don't think I've missed any, but please, if anyone can think of other variables, proven, disproven, known to affect other things, whatever, please let me know.

Starting with item 1. This is what I am trying to disprove, and may ultimately end up proving; we will come back to this in a moment.

Item 2 is fairly believable, if you ask me, if only because this is documented already to affect many things in the game; an affect that can be easily reporoduced by anyone with spare time. Because of this, I am going to assume for now that this affects crafting, and will consequently conduct all my tests on neutral days to the crystal I am using.

Item 3 is also resonably believable because it can be documented to affect other aspects of the game. However, this is also the absolute easiest variable to control as anyone who wants to can avoid wheather simply by crafting within the confines of a city. As such, no tests will be down outside of a city.

Item 4 is as equally controlable of a variable, and as such I will solve the problem by having no equipment on during the course of my tests. This is to eliminate not only the possible affects of the HQ Elemental Staves, but also any undocumented hidden affects of Guild Point items.

Item 5 is going to be a pain in the butt, honestly. This is going to have to dictate when the tests can be done. Since it is fairly well established that Full and New moons affect crafting the most, I will be testing directional synthing during Half-Moon phases, which should be the neutral phase. Further more, there are two Half Moons in a given lunar cycle, allowing for more chances to crank out synths.

Item 6 is, again, easy to control. If I have the inventory space to do it, I will be muling off all my extra stored items and removing all furnature from my moghouse to eleminate all moghancements. If I don't have the inventory space, I will be setting my moghouse to Moghancement Experience, which should have no affect on synthing.

This brings us back to Item 1, directional synthing. I am going to start by establishing a control group. As stated before, using neutral days, at Half Moon Phase. I've chosen to craft facing North East as the control, which means no tests will be done with Light or Dark cyrstals.

Since we are talking crafting in general, I will begin the test with desynthasis, then move on to synthasis. The idea is to gather enough lightning clusters then head down to the Tenshodo to purchase and desynth 100 cotton Kyahans facing the control direction (NE) on a neutral day at half moon.

Once the control group is established, the test will be repeated facing South West, and then again facing South; the two directions that affect synthing results according to the theory of directional synthing.

Some of you may ask "Why start with desynthasis?" and it is a very good question considering that many people believe desynthasis follows slightly different rules than synthasis.

First, desynthing Cotton Kayhans or however it is spelled, is very easy to keep track of in terms of NQ, HQ, HQ2, and HQ3. It is one of the few clothcrafting recipies that actually have different results for all tiers. Secondly, it pays for itself, and then some, which means I won't be doing this test at a net loss to my wallet. Thirdly, it provides me with cotton, with which to test synthing itself.

With a recent aquisition of cotton thread, I will have the opportunity to move on to the second part of this test, which is Shinobi-Tabi. Unfortunately shinobi-tabi does not have an HQ3 that is different from HQ2. If anyone can think of any clothcraft item that is a synth and has all four tiers of successes, please let me know as I can't think of any stuitable ones to test with.

Either way, the test will be repeated (300 synths total), making shinobi-tabi facing a control direction (north east), south, and south east on a half moon during neutral days.

I have nothing but my hunch to go on, but as its my "theory" that directional synthing is bunk, I think we will see that there is not a noticable difference between directions.

I would like to point out that I have Clothcraft to 53. When I desynth Cotton Kayhans I have a wide range of NQ, HQ, and breaks. Likewise, when make shinobi-tabi, I have a wide range of NQ, HQ, and breaks. Since directional synthing supposedly affects NQ and HQ rates, I will be able to test those reasonably well.

Once I am done with this portion of the test, I will move on to testing directional synthing and skill ups. I will be doing the same test making Hunter Cotton under the same conditions as I plow my way through the silk road. This last and final test should fill in the gap of skillup rates in relation to directional synthing.

So... There you have my plan of action. What I want to do. I'm bored enough to do it. I have the funds for the first two tests, and the need to skill up for the third test. But before I actually do it, I would like feedback. What am I not taking into account? What am I forgetting? What can I do to make this test more reliable within reason? Does anyone else want to join in?

I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts.

--------------------
Crafting Results

(B) Breaks - Broke crystal, didn't loose materials
(L) Losses - Broke crystal and lost materials
(NQ) Normal Quality yield, successful synthasis/desynthasis
(HQ1) High Quality yield, successful synthasis/desynthasis
(HQ2) High Quality yield #2, successful synthasis/desynthasis
(HQ3) High Quality yield #3, successful synthasis/desynthasis

Craft Skill Clothcraft for all tests: 53
Equipment worn for all tests: None
Moghancement during all tests: Gardening


Lightning Desynthasis of Cotton Kyahan
Directional Synth: North East

Total Desynths: 84
Total Successes: 34 (40.5%)
Total Failures: 51 (60.7%)

Total NQ: 12 (14.3%)
Total HQ1: 8 (9.5%)
Total HQ2: 8 (9.5%)
Total HQ3: 6 (7.1%)

Total Breaks: 19 (22.6%)
Total Losses: 32 (38.1%)

Group 1 Moon First Quarter (48%)
Breaks: 3
Losses: 2

NQ: 1
HQ1: 1
HQ2: 1
HQ3: 0

Per-synth Breakdown: L, NQ, L, HQ2, HQ1, B, B, B

Group 2 Moon Last Quarter (57%)
Breaks: 9
Losses: 17

NQ: 8
HQ1: 6
HQ2: 7
HQ3: 3

Per-synth Breakdown: HQ3, L, L, B, HQ2, NQ, B, HQ2, HQ2, L, B, L, HQ1, NQ, B, L, L, HQ1, NQ, L, L, L, L, L, HQ1, NQ, B, L, HQ2, L, HQ, L, HQ2, B, L, B, L, NQ, HQ3,NQ, HQ1, HQ2, B, HQ2, HQ1, NQ, HQ3, B, HQ1, L

Group 3 Moon First Quater (48%)
Breaks: 7
Losses: 13

NQ: 3
HQ1: 1
HQ2: 0
HQ3: 3

Per-synth Breakdown: B, L, HQ3, L, L, HQ1, L, HQ3, B, NQ, B, L, HQ3, L, L, L, L, B, B, L, L, NQ, B, L, L, NQ, B



Lightning Desynthasis of Cotton Kyahan
Directional Synth: North East

Total Desynths: 78
Total Successes: 26 (33.3%)
Total Failures: 52 (66.7%)

Total NQ: 13 (16.7%)
Total HQ1: 4 (5.1%)
Total HQ2: 7 (8.8%)
Total HQ3: 2 (2.6%)

Total Breaks: 22 (28.2%)
Total Losses: 30 (38.5%)

Group 1 Moon First Quarter (50%)
Breaks: 7
Losses: 10

NQ: 2
HQ1: 1
HQ2: 4
HQ3: 0

Per-synth Breakdown: HQ1, NQ, L, L, L, L, L, B, HQ2, B, HQ2, B, L, L, B, HQ2, B, L, L, B, HQ2, B, NQ, L

Group 2 Moon Last Quarter (55%)
Breaks: 15
Losses: 20

NQ: 11
HQ1: 3
HQ2: 3
HQ3: 2

Per-synth Breakdown:B, L, HQ3, L, B, HQ2, HQ2, HQ3, NQ, L, L, L, B, B, B, B, NQ, L, L, L, NQ, NQ, L, L, L, L, L, L, B, B, B, NQ, L, B, L, L, B, B, L, HQ1, NQ, B, HQ1, L, HQ1, NQ, HQ, B, NQ, NQ, HQ2, NQ, B, L



Lightning Desynthasis of Cotton Kyahan
Directional Synth: North East

Total Desynths: 43
Total Successes: 16 (37.2%)
Total Failures: 27 (62.8%)

Total NQ: 8 (18.6%)
Total HQ1: 6 (14.0%)
Total HQ2: 2 (4.7%)
Total HQ3: 0 (0.0%)

Total Breaks: 11 (25.6%)
Total Losses: 16 (37.2%)

Group 1 Moon First Quarter (52%)
Breaks: 11
Losses: 16

NQ: 8
HQ1: 6
HQ2: 2
HQ3: 0

Per-synth Breakdown:
HQ1, B, L, NQ, B, NQ, L, B, L, HQ1, L, HQ1, L, HQ1, B, HQ1, B, L, B, L, NQ, HQ1, NQ, L, B, L, B, HQ2, L, NQ, L, NQ, B, B, B, L, HQ2, NQ, L, L, L, NQ, L



Lightning Desynthasis of Cotton Kyahan
Directional Synth: North East

Total Desynths: 100
Total Successes: 47 (47%)
Total Failures: 53 (53%)

Total NQ: 16 (16%)
Total HQ1:13 (13%)
Total HQ2: 14 (14%)
Total HQ3: 4 (4%)

Total Breaks: 17 (17%)
Total Losses: 36 (36%)


Group 1 Moon Last Quarter (60%)
Breaks: 8
Losses: 19

NQ: 5
HQ1: 5
HQ2: 8
HQ3: 3

Per-synth Breakdown:
HQ2, L, B, L, HQ1, B, B, B, HQ2, B, HQ1, L, L, B, L, L, HQ1, NQ, HQ1, HQ2, HQ3, L, L, L, B, HQ3, HQ1, L, HQ2, L, L, HQ2, NQ, HQ3, L, HQ2, NQ, HQ2, NQ, B, L, NQ, L, L, NQ, L, HQ2, L, L

Group 2 Moon First Quater (45%)
Breaks: 9
Losses: 17

NQ: 11
HQ1: 8
HQ2: 6
HQ3: 1

Per-synth Breakdown:
NQ, L, NQ, B, L, HQ1, B, NQ, NQ, NQ, HQ1, HQ2, HQ2, NQ, L, HQ2, L, B, L, HQ1, HQ1, NQ, B, B, L, L, NQ, NQ, NQ, L, B, HQ3, L, HQ1, NQ, HQ1, HQ1, HQ2, L, L, L, B, L, HQ2, B, HQ1, L, B, HQ2, L, L, L



Lightning Desynthasis of Cotton Kyahan
Directional Synth: North East

Total Desynths: 22
Total Successes: 6 (27.3%)
Total Failures: 16 (72.7%)

Total NQ: 1 (4.5%)
Total HQ1: 4 (18.2%)
Total HQ2: 0 (0.0%)
Total HQ3: 1 (4.5%)

Total Breaks: 7 (31.8%)
Total Losses: 9 (40.9%)

Group 1 Moon First Quarter (43%)
Breaks: 7
Losses: 9

NQ: 1
HQ1: 4
HQ2: 0
HQ3: 1

Per-synth Breakdown:
L, NQ, HQ3, HQ1, HQ1, HQ1, B, L, B, HQ1, L, L, L, B, L, B, L, L, B, B, B, L

[Spinnthrift]

Good test to perform... thoughts on desynthing are that the results will be skewed as you get from my experiences an equal amount of HQ's to NQ's no matter how high above tier you are, and the most reliable you can get on average for success is around 50%

My last desynthing run was on leather belts - used 8 lightning clusters and made equal amounts of iron ingots vs sheep leather... where iron ingots are HQ2+3, vs NQ + HQ1 of leather.

Will be an interesting test, although I always the the FFXI Crafting Timer (http://ffxi.lokyst.net/timer/crafttimer.html) was a worthwhile aid.

I wait the results with interest.

- Saeriel.

#edit# I'm not saying it won't be a worthwhile aid (as it still has the day/week/moon stuff) anymore.. just won't be as good as I originally thought... although it has definately helped me during my levels.

[sevenpointflaw]

Its also occured to me that desynthing seems highly random, but since its the cheapest way for me to get cotton and thus make shinobi-tabi, I might as well do the test on desynths as well. I don't want to go broke doing this, after all.

I also remembered after I wrote the basic idea down that there isn't a "half moon" phase in FFXI. The 50% phase falls on Quarter Moons waxing and waining which only gives a few hours within which to get the testing done. Looks like I'm going to be setting my schedule around this test for a while. On the upshot, I have a seven hour window today to do testing during the times I will be home and awake.

[Spinnthrift]

Oh - and thanks for the tip about desynthing cotton kyahan... wouldn't have looked at that as a desynth until now... (I've been looking for cotton thread of late but don't want to pay 20k at stack for it).

[sevenpointflaw]

Hehe. With cotton prices up as high as 35k a stack, its a quick way to make money. Even when prices are cheap, I was getting seven stacks of cotton on new moon with an investment of about 50k. Have to be careful though. Its easy to get overzelous and flood the market.

[Spinnthrift]

I wasn't planning to sell them, but use them to craft up myself with stuff... I have 53 Cloth too, and using that to help get materials for Leather/Bone...

The prices on your place suck even fiercer than mine. ><

[Myaku]

My personal belief is that it is not as simple as a direction faced. I think that it is more complicated than that - I theorize that it is a direction faced on certain day, the combination of elelments, like a Skillchain almost. While I have collected a large ammmount of data, I have not performed a systematic test to prove or disprove, though it is an eventual goal of mine. I look forward to hearing your findings. :thumbsup:

[sevenpointflaw]

As an aside, I'm considering replacing the Hunter's Cotton test with Linen Doublet's. Flax flowers are a dime a dozen, and at my skill level I think that limiting the skillup test to items that I am within 5 levels of (so that skillups occur on breaks) would ultimately be more accurate of a test.

Double Post Edited:
My personal belief is that it is not as simple as a direction faced. I think that it is more complicated than that - I theorize that it is a direction faced on certain day, the combination of elelments, like a Skillchain almost. While I have collected a large ammmount of data, I have not performed a systematic test to prove or disprove, though it is an eventual goal of mine. I look forward to hearing your findings. :thumbsup:

Well, I personally don't believe that direction affects anything, but I agree there are many variables involved, which is why I'm trying to control as many of them as possible. Originally I thought limiting myself to specific moon phases would drag the test out from weeks to months, but I didn't realize the phase I choose is a seven hour window practicly every other day.

I'm going out farming for crystals as soon as I finish muling, and I'll start the first bout of testing sometime around 2pm local time. :) I hope to have at least the control test done today (funds allowing), possibly even more depending on how fast I can liquidate the assests I obtain.

[Taskmage]

What originally sparked my curiousity in all this, however, is that the star-chart does not follow a normal map's labeling. That is, North is the top of the map, South is the bottom of the map. But East is the left side of the map, and West is the right side of the map. Again, if you follow the lables of the map, this matches up with the directional synthing.

So the question that nagged me was WTF? How is it that directional synthing is based off a map that is mislabled? I can only assume that someone went outside at night and looked at the sky, and actually faced the stars as they appear on the map, and realized that the map was in fact labeled correctly even if it is shown "backwards."The map isn't mislabeled, it's drawn as if you were facing south and looked straight up at the zenith of the sky. North will be above you, south below you, east to your left, and west to your right.

[Myaku]

Oh, one quick note - don't forget about the HQ Tiers(11, 31, 51) in your tests. Recipes in different skill tiers will give you different HQ %s.

[sevenpointflaw]

The map isn't mislabeled, it's drawn as if you were facing south and looked straight up at the zenith of the sky. North will be above you, south below you, east to your left, and west to your right.

Ah, well. I failed astronomy. I thought it might have something to do with something... astronomy-ish... but I am clueless when it comes to such things. That certainly explains it though :) Thank you.

Double Post Edited:
Oh, one quick note - don't forget about the HQ Tiers in your tests. Recipes in different skill tiers will give you different HQ %s.

While this is true, as long as my skill level doesn't change while I perform the tests (at least until I do the skill-up test) then the HQ% will be the same within each testing set. In short, it won't matter. I'm high enough to HQ on both the desynth and the synth, and if HQ are affected by changing direction that should show up in the numbers.

[kiffkin]

Still absorbing most of this - will have a think about it.

BTW, one way to understand the star map directions is to imagine holding it above your head and face down (i.e. looking up at it). I've seen real star maps that are designed to be used this way.

[sevenpointflaw]

Got it all sorted out in my head now :) Trying to figure out why it looked "wrong" was just what led me to be curious in the first place. Granted, it ultimately has nothing what-so-ever to do with whether or not directional synthing is a wives tale or a tangable mechanic.

Either way, I've got 10 lightning clusters, fixing to get about two or three more, and when 1:30 rolls around local time, I start work. Hopefully I can get the first hundred done before dynamis starts tonight...

[sevenpointflaw]

Ok, so there isn't much intersting there yet, but I'm about 1/10 the way through the control group. I have to wait for prices on cotton kyahan to go down, cause between this and crafting for profit, i've managed to buy out the tenshodo several days now. Gonna check other guild vendor. If prices low there, I'll keep going and post more tonight.

[Neomage]

1/10th of the way through? geez... oh well, I wish you luck. I never belived directional synthing, but whats the hurt of taking .5 seconds to do it anyway?

[sevenpointflaw]

Okay. I'm down to 35gil, and have to wait for stuff to sell. I'll end up with a very marginal profit on this, mostly because I wasn't paying attention and Tenshodo was selling CK for well over 16k because I had baught them out so many days consecutive. Managed to catch it in time to head over to norg and get them at non-infalted price before I dug myself a grave.

Since I do make a passable profit doing this, I'm seriously considering expanding this test to include 100 desynths on each day of the week during the first/last quarter moons, and esteblishing the control group as an average of all desynths. It should be easy enough to do, considering the way I document everything keeps all synths seperated into groups by day regardless.

Double Post Edited:
1/10th of the way through? geez... oh well, I wish you luck. I never belived directional synthing, but whats the hurt of taking .5 seconds to do it anyway?

Mostly because I got on the computer at the end of Iceday, which is promptly followed by three days presumed to affect crafting (Lightning, Light, and Darks), which are all seperate tests in and of themselves.

Consequently, when I am at my computer and aware of the in-game time, I can crank out about 35-45 synths within the span of one IC day. So it isn't a matter of "it takes long" but rather a matter of "I have to remember to be at the computer."

EDIT: While its fairly well established in my mind that day of the week affects synth results, its interesting to note - even this earlier in the testing, that Lightsday shows a roughtly 7%-8% increase in overall successes compared to Lightningday. I'm really looking forward to performing these tests on Earthday and Darksday and seeing how they compare as well. To say nothing of when all of this is complete, and I move on to changing actual directions.

[Sabaron]

Remember that most people consider direction to be a "lesser" effect, so you may not see any effect except under certain conditions. Also, if you are using Desynthesis, with respect to various elemental effects (e.g. Day of the Week), it does not appear to behave in the same way as Synthesis. I have done a lot of Lightning Desynthesis on Saparas (for cheap Brass) and Goblin Masks (for Glass Fiber) and I've always had more luck on Watersday and Darksday than on Lightningsday and Lightsday, but the sheer randomocity of the Desynthesis serves to obscure the results. Here is an excerpt from my post in Alchemy (understand that I've never done any actual testing on the subject, but go for the much easier safe-than-sorry methodology).

The Direction You Face*
* - There have been studies on many FFXI web communities and there seems to be evidence to suggest that this affects your crafting results, but most agree it is to a lesser degree than the Moon and Day. There is a Star Chart NPC in each of the starting towns.

Dark: North
Light: Northeast
Ice: East
Wind: Southeast
Earth: South
Lightning: Southwest
Water: West
Fire: Northwest

Since the effect is lesser, it is most commonly assumed that direction is only half strength, so it can only serve to buffer the effect of the moon and to enable you to use Free Synthesis effectively. Since partial skill points don't really help, Free Synthesis might not be effective unless you combine it with direction. Free Synteshesis doesn't last very long, so I generally don't bother.

Direction of my crystal: -0.5 Recipe Difficulty
Direction opposing my crystal: +0.5 Recipe Difficulty
Other Direction: +0 Recipe Difficulty

[sevenpointflaw]

I'm very familiar with the theory, and I'm also well away of the supposed randomness of desynthing. Either way though, it should still be a documentable effect. If there is no noticable change, then there is no change. If there is, then there is.

I'm only starting with desynthasis. Its an easy one I do regularly anyhow, so might as well document and whatnot. Either way, I'll move on to actual synth, and then skill up, once the first part of the study is done.

As for your quote about "evidence that suggest this affects your crafting results" I would love to see that evidence. The majority of people seem to agree direcction affects your crafting, but no one can provide document proof one way or the other. The most I have seen is someone documenting 10 synths in one direction and 10 in another. Everything else is just hearsay and "seems to me."

[Sabaron]

Search Alla (if you go there anymore). There are a number of posts there with data and a lot of individual opinions on their thoughts regarding it. I belive Taskmage and Caspian did a thread a while ago on a similar subject (day of the week vs. HQ i think):

http://www.ffxionline.com/forums/crafting.synthesis/53806-synthesis.theories.practice.testing.myths.html?hig hlight=Crafting+Myths

I won't post the Alla links, but I would suggest using the terms "FFXI Directional Synthesis Experiment" on Google.

The lack of concrete data is the primary reason I *'ed my little guide. "Evidence" is not "Proof", and as can be seen in any courtroom does not necessarily reflect cause, effect, or process. It is always quite possible for "Evidence" as such to be merely coincidental.

My logic says that: If there is a Star Map NPC in each town then the Constellations probably do something--even if it doesn't relate to crafting. I thought of going out to someplace like a high hill in Meriphataud or maybe Valkurm to look out at the stars and actually face the constellations rather than just their general direction, but haven't got around to it yet (you can see them in the sky easily as the various stars are actually the color of their element).

Sorry for the late reply, I've been busy running around getting my avatars.

[sevenpointflaw]

Added some more data for both Windsday and Iceday from my test last night. Because it is much easier to hit specific days during the moons I'm testing on, I've decided to expand the test a bit (again). I'm just going to keep collecting "control" data on the various days of the week until I have a hundred desynths on all the days.

This will let people create a control group out of the data in any number of ways. They can compare directional synth on a per-day basis, average all days together, uses just neutral days as the control grouo and ignore other days, or what have you.

Sabaron: Thanks for the post and the forum PM. I gave a cursory glance at the information on alla in that thread. A little lacking, in my opinion. Either way it was an interseting read. Thanks much.

[Nakti]

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

[Macht]

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

Crude, but precise method of just straight out testing directionals. You'll have to make sure though that it's the same synthesis during the whole testing and with eachother, and same equipment you both wear when you were facing towards Light direction and one facing away from it.

Other thing to check to though is the synth amount you both do towards it and with one away. The one that faces towards Light direction the whole time you'll want to see if they maintain that percentage through-out. If the one facing varries to greatly it makes the control imperfect and results useless.

[sevenpointflaw]

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

The biggest complaint I've found people have when analyzing any data is that there is never enough data. I highly reccomend taking the time to go find a synth that turns at least a marginal profrit without having to farm ingredients other than clusters, so that 1.) you turn a profit instead of a loss, 2.) have insentive to go totally overaboard and aquire more data than people expect.

[Taskmage]

Tsurara is a really good test synth if you have 60 alchemy. It sells for a profit albiet very slowly, and you can compress 60+ synths of results into a single inventory slot by making them into toolbags.

[Nakti]

You'll have to make sure though that it's the same synthesis during the whole testing and with eachother, and same equipment you both wear when you were facing towards Light direction and one facing away from it.Good point. We'll both be using mules so it should be easy enough to keep them equipped with the same stuff and keep the Moghancement the same (ie Moghancement:None).

The one that faces towards Light direction the whole time you'll want to see if they maintain that percentage through-out. If the one facing varries to greatly it makes the control imperfect and results useless.We'll be doing the synths at (more or less) the exact same time. That's one of the beauties of playing in the same room. So if the synth is going to be affected by the time of day or moon phase, it should affect the light-facing synth and non-light-facing synth equally. If there's some strange synergistic combo of Direction+Time/Phase hopefully it will become apparent and I'll have to adjust the experimental method.

The biggest complaint I've found people have when analyzing any data is that there is never enough data.I have this complaint myself which is why I haven't "published" previous findings. It's not easy for just 1 or 2 people to test something. All I can do is focus the experiment as narrowly as possible and look for a "tendency".

I highly reccomend taking the time to go find a synth that turns at least a marginal profit without having to farm ingredients other than clusters, so that 1.) you turn a profit instead of a loss, 2.) have incentive to go totally overboard and aquire more data than people expect. I'll probably do the experiment in multiple rounds. Go through the entire experiment with 50 synth sets per possible direction. Examine the data. If it's looking interesting one way or another, rinse and repeat a couple more times.

Tsurara is a really good test synth if you have 60 alchemy. Hmmm. The main reason for going with Antidotes was that Water Crystals are easier to get (for me) either buying off AH or farming. Both our mules will be the same single-digit Alchemy skill level so few HQs are expected. Tsurara is an interesting alternative. I'll have to compare difficulty of getting ice clusters vs. extra cost for antidote ingredients. Both Tsurara and Antidotes have about the same level of profit I think. Neither my husband nor I play NIN, though. ><

I'm not likely to start this experiment soon, though. If I'm lucky, I'll have a chance by January! Maybe I'll run tests on both Tsurara and Antidotes since they use different crystals.

(I keep trying to rate people up and it says I have to spread the rep around.../sigh)

Edit: The test synth doesn't have to be Alchemy. Carrot Broth might be an option, too. Still plenty of time to decide...

[Taskmage]

On Lakshmi, a stack of tsurara toolbags sells for 100k and only takes 5-6 ice clusters to make, which ran about 30k last time I checked. It does take pretty high alchemy to do, and sometimes you have to farm the clusters yourself, which takes a higher level character but can be a profitable activity itself. If you can do those things, it's very convenient for getting a large sample to test HQ rates, since you can sit by the toolbag NPC and craft for hours and end up with 4 stacks of product instead of 20 clogging up your inventory.

This is something I'd like to help with, but I've been on a leveling spree lately (which is very odd for me) and I don't want to break the momentum. Maybe when I hit 65 and take a break to save for torques I'll chip in with some data.(I keep trying to rate people up and it says I have to spread the rep around.../sigh)I have this same problem. All the people I think deserve a rate-up I've already approved of too recently.

[Myaku]

While Tsurara is an actractive synth because of its inexpensive ease, I would recommend sticking with the Antidotes. I think that Water Crystal data would be much more valuable than Ice Crystal data. Sure, in theory, if everything works out, you should be able to adapt the data to different crystals based on their respecitve strengths and weaknesses, but if the data does not come out as expected, I think it will be more valuable to know when to synth with a Water Crystal as opposed to an Ice Crystal. Just my two gil, either way, I look forward to your results.

[sevenpointflaw]

Just a little update for those following this test... I'm having to take a break for a few days. I was using the excuse that I need my buffer for dynamis, but the truth is I sorta of killed my cotton market. I netted well over 1mil doing my test so far, but the result is the cotton threads in Jeuno and Windurst are selling for about 15k a stack. I promised myself that if prices dropped that low I would let the market recover before flooding it with 50+ stacks a day again

Besides, I'm getting cotton for brains from doing all these synths @.@

Within a couple days I should be back to updating the data. ^^

[sevenpointflaw]

Mostly just a personal note to remind myself to collect data to test the theory that Light/Fire/Thunder/Wind yields increass on Full moon and that Dark/Earth/Water/Ice yields increase on New Moon. Should be able to analyze the data for that theory to a small degree once I move on to my earth crystal tests (lightning being data for light group, earth being data for dark group).

[sevenpointflaw]

Okay. Added the data I collected last night and started adjusting the way the data is displayed a tiny bit. Anyhow, added the first bit of data collected on Watersday. At only 20 desynths its hard to make any conclusions really.

The real gem of last night's data was Windsday. A supposedly neutral day to lightning, I've completed 100 desynths on this day, which means if I am running tests and the in game times changes to windsday, I can start testing actual directions.

I still don't have data for Fire, Dark, or Earth days.

[mikesjustice]

Test 1: Iron Sheets
Direction NW
Incremental synth pattern at 0:00, 0:20, 0:40 times.
72 batch each elemental day covering 3 different elemental days.

Results: 46%-50% HQ average achieved. Multiple cross tests done covering 4 rl months, synthing weeks at one set time/moon/day, attempting to control all factors as best as human error will allow.


Test 2: Iron sheets
Direction N
Continuous synth pattern
Batches of approx 100 synths per elemental day nonstop covering 3 elemental days. Tests were done for 1 rl weeks time.

Results: 50% HQ average met approx. I don't remember the exact percentage, I think 46%-48% it was, but nothing noticable to throw off the numbers.


Opinion: HQ average > all. I've done other tests as well, but unfortunately all it takes is one "other" direction scenerio to support the direction theory doesn't hold water. If we want to go even further, we can look at the fact that NW is a Light based element, and N represents a Dark element, yet we see similar results.

[ikkleste]

Directional synthing has always been of interest to me.

I've devised a directional synthing (not desynthing like you're doing) to do with my husband. Conducting the experiment with someone else at the same time eliminates most of the time- and weather- related variables.

Experiment synthing Antidotes

Control Test (just to verify no difference based on race/gender/equip):

Me: facing Light direction (NE)
Hubby: facing Light direction (NE)

If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

Experimental Data

Me: facing Light direction (NE) always
Hubby: facing each of the other directions in turn (ie 100 synths facing East, 100 synths facing SE, etc)

The experimental NQ, HQ, and break % are normalized against the percentages from facing the Light direction. This eliminates the need to synth always on a certain moon phase or day.

I figured the cost would be a minimum of 500k for materials and a minimum of 8 hours testing. I'm working on some other tests right now so if someone else beats me to it, please do!

it occurred to me to run the same experments but i don't have the facilities to do so (only one computer on the game at the moment.) the other way you could do it would be to get ten people (from a crafting LS for example) to conduct a similar expt.




If our set of NQ, HQ, and break % aren't the same (within error margins), there must be a difference due to race/gender/equip. Both of us will have Alchemy at the same exact skill level.

alternatively there is a true randomisation factor (not based on time/date/moon, but a random generated number each time a synth is done, instead of all conditions coming together to say if you succeed or fail, they come together to give your chance of succeed or fail.).

You could further check this by starting mules and conducting the same expt... then you could set race/gender/equip to be identical, eliminating other factors. With this setup you could actually check a hell of a lot (whether direction, gears/resistances, etc), or finally prove whether there is a true random factor or not.

It also might be worth to be in the same place, ther may be other local conditions that aren't aware of (say degrees of weather rather than just fire or double fire it might be possible to be 'a bit fire but not quite a whole one') being in the same place would eliminate this (admittedly unlikely) idea.


If it does prove to be that there is a random factor then we at least know for sure the best we can hope for, in any investigation, is a statistcal analysis.

[Nakti]

mikesjustice, what was your skill level compared to the cap of the iron sheets? It looks like you were in the +31 tier. I remember seeing some tests suggesting (but not proving) that conditions affect the tiers differently. ie element day > skill for +11 tier, and skill > element day for +31 and up tiers.

ikkleste, I would love to have 9 or 10 people testing at one time. ^^ But that's not going to happen at my house, so I'll just have to do what I can when I can.

sevenpointflaw, thank you for all this testing!

[ikkleste]

ikkleste, I would love to have 9 or 10 people testing at one time. ^^ But that's not going to happen at my house, so I'll just have to do what I can when I can.



hehe, i'm sure they'd make the trip to where ever you live ^^

nah, seriously, once you get the initial testing done with the two of you, you could try doing something with extra subjects. Rogue results will be easier to spot, and while the error margins may increase, even running from different places you might be able to get some meaningful results.

[Aeni]

mikesjustice, what was your skill level compared to the cap of the iron sheets? It looks like you were in the +31 tier. I remember seeing some tests suggesting (but not proving) that conditions affect the tiers differently. ie element day > skill for +11 tier, and skill > element day for +31 and up tiers.

Not just that, but what are the elemental days even? mikesjustice was not specific in this regard.

Light - Light, Fire, Wind, Lightning
Dark - Dark, Ice, Water, Earth

Any crafter worth half their salt or 60 or more levels into their main job should know this by now (If not, stop playing the game and cancel your account)

The tests done could've been made on days where it would be strongly adverse to one direction and the next set of testing done on another set of days which skews the data and sugarcoats the results. Also 72 batches and then 100 later isn't exactly the same thing.

I want real honest to goodness testing with exacting and specific process.

This is called the scientific method, which most of the testing I've seen have failed in. Until then, I'll continue to use the crafting timer, develeped over many years by pooling results from various crafters and their experiences as well as using mathematical formulae that actually makes sense.

[sevenpointflaw]

Not just that, but what are the elemental days even? mikesjustice was not specific in this regard.

Light - Light, Fire, Wind, Lightning
Dark - Dark, Ice, Water, Earth

Any crafter worth half their salt or 60 or more levels into their main job should know this by now (If not, stop playing the game and cancel your account)

The tests done could've been made on days where it would be strongly adverse to one direction and the next set of testing done on another set of days which skews the data and sugarcoats the results. Also 72 batches and then 100 later isn't exactly the same thing.

I want real honest to goodness testing with exacting and specific process.

This is called the scientific method, which most of the testing I've seen have failed in. Until then, I'll continue to use the crafting timer, develeped over many years by pooling results from various crafters and their experiences as well as using mathematical formulae that actually makes sense.

While I can't speak for other people, the gripe I have with the crafting timer is that it isn't based on any actual formula. It took me for ever to track the development thread down on it, but it is based highly on assumptions, and basicly just calculates assumed ralative difficulties.

And while it seems to be highly accurate in that regards, it is hardly scientific, based instead off non-tested assumptions about how various directions affect synthing, as well as the assumption of how much each direction affects synthing.

I can't deny that the crafting time seems more acurate than randomly spinning around to HQ an Aristocrats Coat, but show me the hard, concrete data used to put the crafting timers forumla together. You won't find it. Even the original thread where the author of the timer talks about it states that they are assumptions.

Hense, the long ardorous task of the Cotton Kayhans and Shinobi Tabi that I'm doing. Hopefully it will confirm some of the theories and debunk some of them.

[Hamlet]

Also, make sure to note what elemental resistances you have equipped, because you may resist your synth and scew the results.

j/k I'm looking forward to more results. Anytime I've tried to do directional synthing, the results seemed completely random (whether it be facing in the direction of the crystal, facing the opposite of the direction, or facing the direction of the element the crystal is weak to- I seem to get the same results overall. Every once in awhile I'll get an hq on the first one and think that's the right direction, but then like 6 nqs in a row on something I should be able to hq 25% of the time seems to disprove that).

[sevenpointflaw]

No new data added, but I fiddled with the way it looks some, and added % results to what I have so far.

[mikesjustice]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nakti
mikesjustice, what was your skill level compared to the cap of the iron sheets? It looks like you were in the +31 tier. I remember seeing some tests suggesting (but not proving) that conditions affect the tiers differently. ie element day > skill for +11 tier, and skill > element day for +31 and up tiers.



Not just that, but what are the elemental days even? mikesjustice was not specific in this regard.

Light - Light, Fire, Wind, Lightning
Dark - Dark, Ice, Water, Earth

Any crafter worth half their salt or 60 or more levels into their main job should know this by now (If not, stop playing the game and cancel your account)

The tests done could've been made on days where it would be strongly adverse to one direction and the next set of testing done on another set of days which skews the data and sugarcoats the results. Also 72 batches and then 100 later isn't exactly the same thing.

I want real honest to goodness testing with exacting and specific process.

This is called the scientific method, which most of the testing I've seen have failed in. Until then, I'll continue to use the crafting timer, develeped over many years by pooling results from various crafters and their experiences as well as using mathematical formulae that actually makes sense.

If you had read my statement then you would have your answer. Any crafter with half of mind would comprehend what was mentioned.

72 batch each elemental day covering 3 different elemental days.

Batches of approx 100 synths per elemental day nonstop covering 3 elemental days. Tests were done for 1 rl weeks time.


Originally Posted by Nakti
mikesjustice, what was your skill level compared to the cap of the iron sheets? It looks like you were in the +31 tier. I remember seeing some tests suggesting (but not proving) that conditions affect the tiers differently. ie element day > skill for +11 tier, and skill > element day for +31 and up tiers.


If I was posting results with nearly a nearly 50% HQ rate across thousands of test results, would I be in tier 31? Come now.

Now tell me the difference between specifying particular days or picking 3 consectutive elemental days, and controlling your tests to repeat the test pattern again and again?

All it takes is one elemental day to see a variance between another elemental day. Not only did I use 3 elemental days, I followed it up by repeating the tests again covering those same 3 elemental days over a duration of time.

Also, using the controlled method, taking in account travel time, drop or npc time, etc, you can only synth 72-120 ish synths in any one given elemental day, as you are bound by time. Of course it's not a large sample, hense the reasoning for continuing the tests over a large period of time.

Until then, I'll continue to use the crafting timer, develeped over many years by pooling results from various crafters and their experiences as well as using mathematical formulae that actually makes sense.

Well, if you want to continue on with the crafting timer, by all means. Understand your typing along side of one of the members that helped theorize the concept. Divisorytheory, Lok, PurpleNV, myself, we all contributed our knowledge whereas NV developed the mathematical formula and lok put it to table form. We are some of the craft veterans of the Allakhazam boards, where divisor and I nearly tested for every theory that came across the site, including cross server sync tests.

Also know that the crafting timer newbie crafters worship is an excellent starter tool, but it's simply that, a starter tool and is rather outdated at this point in time. The only thing truely accurate about it are the directions in relation to elements. Any experienced crafter, and I mean experienced, knows that regardless of skill from cap, 1 or 5 out from item cap, you will skill up just the same. That's fact. The difference is that the further you are from cap, the larger the increase for fail - duh. Also know that should you use support or gear to "modify" your gap, you can still skill up consistantly at item cap, or 1 point above. Support will never hinder you, however it puts you into the positive for two specific reasons.

1.) Once you break item cap through support, modifying your gap, you break into the first tier for HQ, which is greater than the HQ odd when you are below item cap.

2.) Your fail rate decreases slightly. Once you break ground zero, or item cap, your fail rate will decrease. This is easily tested for, I encourage you to go do some testing.


Now, I'd rather not be so blunt, but understand that some of us are not on level playing fields as far as knowledge of crafting goes. Some of us have walked the path of a thousand miles and all we do is share our finds.

What you believe to be relevant now, is exactly where we were 2+ years ago. We've tested and made our finds. After much experience and wasted time/gil, the answers come to you.

Ultimately it's just as foolish to suggest "individual factors" play any part of the HQ formula as it was it to suggest "Which elemental day" did I synth during my tests. Without understanding what I was doing specific for those tests, it's clear your not ready to move towards an advance mindset in relation to crafting.

And if it's too much to take in information from people that have already walked the path, I encourage you to get out there and start testing. That's how we did it. See ya in 2 years!

[sevenpointflaw]

Updated with more data. Lightningday is nearly complete now.

[blackmajick]

on a side note i think the only thing missing from your test is time, personally i think that time has way more of a factor than any direction you face.

[sevenpointflaw]

Time? As in time of day? Time spent crafting consecutively? Time of the year? Or is that purely speculation on your part, which I'm guessing because I've never heard elesewhere that "Time" affects crafting.

[Myaku]

Time? As in time of day? Time spent crafting consecutively? Time of the year? Or is that purely speculation on your part, which I'm guessing because I've never heard elesewhere that "Time" affects crafting.

I have heard Time theories before, but I don't think it has more of an effect than direction. I have done limited testing, and there are some times that gave abnormal HQ%, but nothing that I would call significant with respect to the sample size. I haev heard anywhere from 30-min blocks of time to 3-hour blocks of time. My personal theory is that time operates much like Moon Phase - New and Full vs. Midnight and Noon.

[Nakti]

The "Eruntalon Code" threads on Alla talked about time within a Vana'diel day affecting HQs, but I haven't seen any other serious discussions regarding it. Maybe time affects HQs, maybe not (it affects fishing for example). My personal guess is that if time is a factor, it's not more a factor than direction. If the test synths are all done at random times, time shouldn't be too much of an influence (if it's an influence at all).

sevenpointflaw, keep up the good work! :thumbsup:

[sevenpointflaw]

Well, just look at the existing data. Like I said, any data that has 25+ entries is done over the course of an in-game day. Whether or not I get 25 synths or 50 synths is a matter of how bored I am. Either way, there is no clear trend in time over the course of a day. The only "possible" trend you can see is in Watserday, where I get an abnormally large squence of losses and breaks; but I have a feeling that trend will average out with more watersday testing.

And honestly, the only other thing that Time of Day affects is pops for mobs. SE has a nasty habit of recycling code. Very lazy programers. And while I don't like to discount the possility, honestly, the idea that "time" is a factor is frankly probably bunk.

Opinion aside though, look at the data. If you can point out where time of day shows a distinct trend that can be distinctly accounted for, I'll listen.

[Macht]

Yeah, from the crafting I've done I've had situations were it seemed like time of the day had an effect. Example around noon till before sunset (12:00-19:00) I've had it seem like Fire Crystals worked really well.

Many times I've had Thunder Crystals seem to work well between (23:00 - 1:00) especially when it's cloudy which it almost always does just before the moon changes color at (0:00).

Almost like time has an effect but mostly only due to that weather in that environment seems to be changing. Since after sunset it's impossible to get a fire weather effect (well unless you are in Ifrit's Cauldron I would guess).

Examples of what I'm stating though is doing the crafting while in a city, not out in a zone were you actually see weather effect icons come up.

[sevenpointflaw]

Just letting people know I havn't forgotten about the testing. Just had a few costs. Blew through Riverne A01 -> Riverne B01, Shen run, hakutaku run, several ENM and BCNM back to back. Funds being a little short, and last tests materials being slow to sell, I havn't been able to get more mats for testing. WIll add more soon though I hope ^^

[Nakti]

Just letting people know I havn't forgotten about the testing. Just had a few costs. Blew through Riverne A01 -> Riverne B01, Shen run, hakutaku run, several ENM and BCNM back to back. Funds being a little short, and last tests materials being slow to sell, I havn't been able to get more mats for testing. WIll add more soon though I hope ^^ np^^ I'm always short on time and/or gil so I know the feeling. We appreciate the amount of effort you've put into this test already!

[Asmoranomar]

Figured you guys might be interested in something i posted on somepage:

Subcrafts are also affected by tiers. If your 51 levels over main craft and 31 levels over sub craft, your overall synth will be a 31 teir craft.

Keep in mind tho, that results change when you have subcrafts, I believe the correct formula is +5% loss per craft. So a craft that has 2 subcrafts will have a 15% loss rate. This obviously decreases the impact of the tier.

These are my results over 4,000 logged synths:
Single Craft Tier
0-10: 5% Loss, 93% NQ, 2% HQ (?)
11-30: 5% Loss, 87% NQ, 8% HQ
31-50: 5% Loss, 65% NQ, 30% HQ
51-70: 5% Loss, 48% NQ, 47% HQ
71+: 5% Loss, 32% NQ, 63% HQ

Dual Craft Tier (moderately tested)
0-10: 10% Loss, 88% NQ, 2% HQ (?)
11-30: 10% Loss, 83% NQ, 7% HQ
31-50: 10% Loss, 63% NQ, 27% HQ
51+: 10% Loss, 34% NQ, 56% HQ

Tripple Craft Tier (very little tested)
0-10: 15% Loss, 83% NQ, 2% HQ (?)
11-30: 15% Loss, 79% NQ, 6% HQ
31-50: 15% Loss, 65% NQ, 25% HQ
51+: 15% Loss, 46% NQ, 39% HQ

A little warning for those of you that want to comment on this:
4,000 synths is NOT enough data to figure much out. It\'s also up to the person looking at the data to interpret what it all means. These are not totally exact numbers but they are all within +/-5%. These are the numbers I suspect are the most correct, based on different assumptions I\'ve made (which many not be the same assumptions everyone would agree on).

If your intrested in seeing the raw data, I made a post on alla\'s tradeskill forums a while ago - but not too many people said anything about it. The problem with narrowing things down is - if you make it too simple, people accuse you of lying, if you make it too complex, no one understands it.

I\'ve had a few terrible outlashes from people in the past and its the main reason I\'ve kept things under the table for so long. If no one cares about the information then I\'ll just keep it to myself and a few friends.

I post it here because there seems to be a lot less flexing of the e-peen than most other areas.

Oh, and about the direction facing - while I haven\'t been able to prove that directions do anything, I also haven\'t been able to disprove it either. Its unusual to note that if I group all the crafting done in one direction, and compare it to a group done in a different direction, more often then not the \"HQ\" direction does have a better HQ rate. But this rate also lies within the rate of error, which means that:
1) HQ directions could be +1-3% HQ rate.
2) Crafting directions are a percieved fallacy due to a +/-5% HQ error margin.

It\'s worth to note that days and moon DO appear to affect crafting rates, but I can\'t split the two up. I can say that New Moon + Day of the week crystal is weak to offers the Highest skill up rate, but I\'m unable to narrow down HQ, Success or Failure rates.

Of course, (outside of tiers) crafting is all about luck - cheers!