[Byrthnoth]

I'm a level 5 Leathercrafter, and I have been for some time. I've been trying to avoid losing incredible amounts of money on Rabbit Mantles and Soleas. So, when I saw that Karakul Leather was a level 10 Synth, I jumped on it.

The Recipe is Imperial Tea Leaves (45k/stack) + Karakul Skin (30k each) + Distilled Water (~free) + Dark Crystal (5k/stack) = Karakul Leather (500k/stack)

So, I was adding everything up, and it was looking like I could fail ~3 times and still make profit on the recipe as long as I jumped on it before the market moved. So, I bought 13 Karakul Skins, 13 Imperial Tea Leaves, and a stack of Dark Crystal and took off for San'd Oria. It was Iceday 76% Waxing Gibbous when I arrived.
I got Advanced Synth Support, faced North, and started synthing. The synths went as follows:
1 : Success, +.1 skill
2 : Success
3 : Failure + Karakul Skin lost
4 : Failure + Karakul Skin lost
5 : Failure + Karakul Skin + Imperial Tea Leaves lost
6 : Failure + Karakul Skin lost
7 : Failure + Karakul Skin + Imperial Tea Leaves lost

So, needless to say, after losing over 150k, I was slightly miffed. I was so angry, in fact, that I ran over to the AH, grabbed about 10 stacks of Rabbit Skins, and started making mantles. Once I got level 7, I went back and tried again. By this time, it was Lightningday 79% Waxing Gibbous
1 : Success, + .2 skill
2 : Success, + .2 skill
3 : Success
4 : Success, + .2 skill
5 : Failure + Karakul Skin lost
6 : Success, + .2 skill

At this point I warped back to Jeuno for more Skins.

7 : Success, + .1 skill

And then my support wore, so I headed back to Sandy rather than risk another 120k of synths. The rest of the synths were still completed in the same day/moon phase.

8 : Success
9 : Success, + .2 skill (Hit level 8)
10 : Success
11 : Success, + .1 skill

From the skillup pattern, I would guess that this synth is closer to level 12, not a level 10. The high occurance of failures without skillups at the early level indicates that, while I was within 10 levels of the synth, I was not within 5. Also, the 100% loss of Karakul Skin probably means that it's a critical ingredient. I am considering taking this recipe to cap, but I'll need to sell what I have to get money back for more skins if I do.

So, before you start this recipe, get at least level 7, and ask yourself, "Do you feel lucky, punk?" (because if you don't, you'll lose your shirt!)

Continued:
This run was done on Firesday 76% Waning Gibbous.

1 : Success, +.1 skill
2 : Failure, Imperial Tea Leaves + Distilled Water lost
3 : Success
4 : Failure, +.1 skill, Distilled Water + Karakul Skin lost
5 : Success, +.1 skill
6 : Success, +.1 skill
7 : Success, +.2 skill
8 : Success, +.2 skill (Level 9)
9 : Success
10 : Success
11 : Success
12 : Success
13 : Success
14 : Success, +.1 skill

[Elrik666]

Thanks for the heads up Byr... was debating starting leather up soon and was thinking of hitting that at level 5... think I will wait till 7 now based on your findings... No worries bud, by the time I start you should be passed it so we won't be competing

Thieves Rule!

[Jinnistacia]

Looks like you were caught trying out a new recipe with a fuzzy skillcap. ffrecipe.com lists it as L12 cap so far, but is it final? Anyway, this looks like a good low-level leather recipe.

--Jinni

[Byrthnoth]

Well, I know it wasn't 10. 12 sounds about right.

I am now level 21, so I can no longer test it. Imperial Tea Leaves disappeared from the AH on my server just as I hit 10, and I had 2 stacks of Lizard Skins, so I gave it up. Oh well.