Logic of Undercutting?

[Raydeus]

Unfortunately for people like you, I think exactly the same way in buying. I bid on the lowest and work my way up. Since I desynth for materials, having a low overhead just expands my ceiling for potential profit.

Anyone who places an item too low from the current selling price knows they are taking a risk, sometimes it works well and others you take the hit.

It's just the way it is, but if you need gil fast and do that more often than not people will bid very close to the current price.

[mikesjustice]

Then we can just buy all of the remainder of any consumable off of the AH and then turn around and sell them for more than we bought them for and generally have the only mass quantities of said item on AH.

While this can work well, there's nothing more depressing than purchasing out the stock to resell higher, only to find another dozen or two of the stock back on ah the next morning. Not only have you solidified the low selling price, the seller has potentially positioned it to sink even lower, and your stuck with a large quantity of this product.

I've been caught by this before.

[Aeni]

This phrase was not created on FFXI.

Who said it was? If you got nothing to offer in this thread, then you should get demoted for your immature spam. Moving on...

[kuu]

When I'm buying synthesis/desynth materials I think this way too. I stock up but will not spend beyond a self-imposed cap. I only do this when buying things in ultra bulk.

Sadly overall and not so sadly for me personally, most people do not think like you and will generally pay full price no matter what. I make enough profit off of those people to not worry about people like you that are smarter about the market.


As for what you mention about gouging... Me and my wife will often do the same. Like you say there are certain times when certain things bottom out on the AH. This are great times to sell. We actually will make a rock bottom on our own. Certain items are hot at certain times so we know when those are and have stored up massive amounts of these. Then we can just buy all of the remainder of any consumable off of the AH and then turn around and sell them for more than we bought them for and generally have the only mass quantities of said item on AH.

Eventually other crafters will catch on but usually not before we've already made a killing at the gouged price. If we get undercut so bad that stuff gets sent back we just wait til the next time that conditions are right and do it again.

Yes you can. Because it's specialization. And not many can specialize, both in the skill to HQ, the timing, the dedication, and the opportunity.

If you want to use Huberk as an example or a no-for-profit HQ. It's is not a counter arguement. It's a side-note.

No one is in the market to HQ a huberk(very much), but that doesn't mean that no one is in the market to sell a huberk.

There is no depreciation in the game. You keep it, use it, or sell it. Otherwize it's a wasted slot.

In other words you are in a niche market.

You may be living off of a niche market, but HQ is where the money is, it's where the battle is. You can clearly see this from all the threads on "how to make gil crafting".

If your tactic is to "skim the market" like any wallstreeter, you take bets and you can win or loose.

It only really works if you have the inventory space. It's definitely not a rolling in gil situation.

On the other hand, ask woodcrafters how much they make. If you're not playing with the big boys, don't assume it's a lost cause.

[mikesjustice]

Hard to follow the reply above, as I think part of it is implied to me, while some might not. The quotation makes it hard to tell, but I was the only one speaking of hauberks.

You may be living off of a niche market, but HQ is where the money is, it's where the battle is. You can clearly see this from all the threads on "how to make gil crafting".

Of course HQ is where the money is, but there are certain high lvl HQ's that you literally can not profit from even if you HQ.

Again, it's not as cut and dry as "OMG!!! I HQ'd "X" item" to secure a profit. It's "OMG!!!, I HQ"d "X" item" + NQ'd "Y" items at a loss + Failed "Z" times over a certain quantity of results, that will determine if you made gil or not. Blind and/or ingnorant crafters exclude the "Y" and "Z" factors, or choose to over look them for w/e reasons.

How to gauge if you can profit:

On tier 11.) Can I profit should I HQ once, NQ eight, and Fail 1 synth based upon the HQ averages?

On tier 31.) Can I profit should I HQ three, NQ eight, and Fail 1 synth based upon the HQ averages?

Add in your AH fees and that should give you a rough idea on whether you can make gil. Intelligent crafters think similar to this and understand where they can take risks. Ingorant crafters will craft without a care. They might say "Well it doesn't look like I'm losing gil". The reply is "Is this the only piece you craft within your guild?" If it's not, you have something else supplimenting your loss, skewing the true results.

And in my very specific example (Hauberk), which is a 5% HQ piece and NOT 10%, the equation is as follows....

Damascus ingot = 4.5 million
Additional materials 300k
AH listing 50k maybe?

1 HQ = 23 million gil
18 NQ = 4 million gil each
1 Fail = 4.8 million lost (Being generous and only assuming 1 loss)

Cost to do business = 97 million over 20 synths
Gil returned from sales = 95 million
Overall results = 2 million gil loss

And this assumes you only fail once and not twice, which is more in line with Fail averages.

There is no depreciation in the game.

Incorrect. Inflation and deflation are in direct relation to what's happening to the market compared to the amount of gil you hold in hand. A temp. spike or decrease in price doesn't mean anything, but when a trend of all materials and endgame pieces push higher or lower collectively, it's a clear indicator that your gil is becoming worth more or less, your buying power is increasing or decreasing against the market. Cash is king.

And unfortunately, knowing what happens with RMT sites delivers insight of what's to come. As much as we may dislike, when RMT sites run out of cash, gilbuyers on our servers can not access gil as easily as before. Markets slow, stock of items build, and sellers fall all over themselves trying to bail, all while trying to salvage any gil they can from this now inflated product. Cause and effect.

On the other hand, ask woodcrafters how much they make. If you're not playing with the big boys, don't assume it's a lost cause.

Lol, check sig. I am the "Big Boys" and I speak on behalf of experience. Do you have similar results and experiences that conflict with my finds?

I would make a guess your main "might" be woodworking? If it's not why even speculate on something you have no first hand experience in. If it is, let's compare finds.

My find, as one example, is that current priced HQ staves are one of the worst tier 31 pieces to profit from, require the most work to secure a profit, and puts you right into a negative position right from the beginning.

[Draco Dagon]

Lol, you are so wrong. Maybe if you would check the prices of those items more often, you would see. In rag, SH prices dropped below 5m. It's at 4.5m right now I believe. SH+1 is now almost 8m. PCC has dropped like a rock too ever since the change with argus. It's dropped to 15m and still too many sellers with too little buyers. Leaping boots dropped from 2.2m to 1.5m. Hows that for useful undercutting?

We're not on the same server, sorry.

[nod]

I love undercutting. I bought a pair of Austere pants for 10K at the AH a few days ago. I'm sure the moron that thought he was going to make a quick 350K+ will be very surprised at his meager earnings. ^^