[kuu]

I think most people are catching on to why an uncertain market isn't a good thing to have, even if prices have lowered.

This is in essence the folly of SE. Market geniues they aren't. They didn't take in the fact that a market has both buyers and sellers. By saying "prices will drop":

They have bascially screwed sellers, which in turn screws buyers, which in terms screw sellers, in a vicious cycle.

Sellers want to sell, because prices are dropping, but buyers don't want to buy because they want a bargin. And in the middle of it all are people trying to make a quick buck off chaos.

You win some, you lose some.

[Smasholays]

I wouldn't say the market is totally uncertain. If you think about it, you can accurately predict when prices will rise and when they will lower. Obviously during big holidays (summer, thanksgiving, christmas, spring break) prices will rise because more people will be playing at once. Of course once people start going back to school prices will start going back down again. This has been true for as long as I have been playing, it was just this past Christmas where I've seen prices rise at such an exponential rate.

[kuu]

Originally Posted by Smasholays

I wouldn't say the market is totally uncertain. If you think about it, you can accurately predict when prices will rise and when they will lower. Obviously during big holidays (summer, thanksgiving, christmas, spring break) prices will rise because more people will be playing at once. Of course once people start going back to school prices will start going back down again. This has been true for as long as I have been playing, it was just this past Christmas where I've seen prices rise at such an exponential rate.

Not true in this case, because you're not 100% certain in any acceptable timeframe, and thus like any risks with market, You can get burned. Added to the fact of AH tax will erode most of the profit you have.

In this case, it is 99.1% certain prices will fall, because SE says so(and they stupidly did). This creates a kind of self fulfilling-prophecy in blood and gore so to say.

[Smasholays]

I just gave a list of timeframes where prices have always risen and fallen. It's not hard to figure out that more people playing = more demand = higher prices. Last Christmas prices rose, then a few months after Christmas they banned 800 accounts and price went back down. This isn't anything new.

[kuu]

Originally Posted by Smasholays

I just gave a list of timeframes where prices have always risen and fallen. It's not hard to figure out that more people playing = more demand = higher prices. Last Christmas prices rose, then a few months after Christmas they banned 800 accounts and price went back down. This isn't anything new.

You are refering to what is called "Hindsight". "Ah-ah it happened see" isn't going to cut it.

How about next update I say they're making SH replica like they did with sniper ring last time? We would argue it and then argue it some more, and maybe 1/1000 will bite.

BTW, a lot of people in on wallstreet swear by something similar all all having their own special "formulas". It's pretty much critized by the acedemic world. Most of those people got a rude awakening on 2000

[lionx]

Lol the way you put SE Kuu its like SE is Allan Greenspan or something...and come to think of it its not that far off...><;a

[Aeni]

I have to agree that smash has given time frames and kuu is just simply not listening to this.

Kuu, please explain to everyone here why is it that you refuse to acknowledge real world scenarios and actual facts and instead you trumpet academic rhetoric? Can you honestly say that you're an expert in economics and that you're just flaunting your knowledge weight around in this and other similar threads?

Mind you, I'm asking purely on curiousity, because you strike me as coming off aloof as well as sounding like some foreign exchange student ...

[Smasholays]

I have no idea why we are comparing the real world stockmarket to the AH in Jeuno. No one can buy "real money" in the real world which puts the actual in game market at a severe disadvantage. The amount of money in the real world is also regulated by the Government, there are no rules on how much gil can be in the economy at one time in the game except the annually bannings.

There are no hindsights here, it's the simple fact that this has happened at certain points for a reason. This isn't guesstimation. Do prices fluctuate when it's not a holiday break? No. Things might go up or down but we don't see huge price hikes on everything. Is this the "emotion" thing again? Prices have gone up everytime school has let out, not by chance, but for a reason more people suddenly have a lot more time on their hands. There is simply no reason for this to ever stop and I doubt "real world formulas that are critized by the acedemic world" have anything to do with it, let alone make it stop.

Rare/Ex items have very little effect on their non rare/ex alternatives, as people still buy them and buy them for more. If you don't believe prices are going to rise when summer comes, or Christmas, then either you haven't been playing the same game or you don't have any common sense - but that's fine with me, once the end of November nears I'm going to be buying as many Haubergeons/Scorpion Harness's/etc that I can afford, because with the release of Xbox 360s that is even more prospected gil buyers that will inflate the market when IGE has their annual christmas sale.