Eruntalon's claim

[Taskmage]

Apparently this is old news, but I had only become aware of it recently:
http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.htm...055971&num=223

In this thread on alla's forums, Eruntalon alleges that after reviewing a massive amount of data collected in all 8 synthesis guilds, he discovered what appears to be a magic setup that sways the probability of an HQ so far that one can guarantee that a synth will be an HQ.

On the credibility of his claim: Prior to making this post and subsequently quitting the game, Eruntalon achieved a great deal of respect on the crafting forums for his data collection and research in the area of optimal HQ conditions, such as this post which, to me at least, was the origin of our current HQ theory. Eruntalon has, afaik, provided no proof of his ability to achieve 100% HQ to the community in general, but as many people have no doubt demanded to see it firsthand, I would probably choose not to respond to any such requests also if I were in his position. Many people began to discount his theory entirely when a poster that was traced to the same IP as Eruntalon claimed to "know his secret" and offered the information in exchange for real life money. This doesn't really prove anything, in my opinion, so much as it throws his character into question. The idea that a method of forcing an HQ by some means resonates with me, as I have often wondered how certain crafters manage to produce so many HQs of items with very rare and expensive ingredients, especially on synths with subskills that make it virtually impossible to reach high HQ tiers. For example, one crafter on Lakshmi maintains a bazaar of 5-10 Haubergeon +1s, a synth which has skill caps of 69 smithing and 38 clothcraft, and should be impossible to pass the 12% HQ tier on.

On the magic setup itself: Eruntalon himself has provided very few solid details as to his method, but he does provide some clues.

• He says plainly that his results seemed to vary from guild to guild.
• He's also nudged strongly in the direction that a character's equipment may play a stronger role in the result of a synth that previously suspected.
• Somewhere he stated that he did a large amount of research on Tarutaru Folding Screens and Clothespoles before learning how to perfectly HQ elemental staves. This suggests that the skill level of the synth plays a bigger role in determining HQ odds than simply setting your tier.
• This is not directly stated by Eruntalon as far as I know, but it's been assumed by many that the method involves synthing during a particular window in which the elemental influences of the crystal, day, moon phase, and time of day align in some way. This is consistent in Eruntalon's prior belief in a large system of elemental "cogs" that determined crafting results, but on the other hand he says that to reach his conclusion he had to "forget everything [he] had learned and started the experiment again."

So, to the experienced crafters of the board: What do you think of this? Does a method to break the assumed statistical barriers on HQ results exist? What might it involve?
I had already resolved myself to a similar path as Eruntalon before hearing about this, collecting a large amount of crafting data to determine what is really true about our crafting dogma, but I'd be interested to hear what the attitudes and experiences of other crafters are in this area.

[Caspian]

Personally, I'm lvl 67 in woodworking and have synthed some Ash lumber for a friend. From what I can tell (I haven't exactly taken notes on results and circumstances), I see to get more HQ's (a few more breaks) on off days. Synthed two stacks of wind crystal's worth of lumber and maybe got 40% HQ's. Tried like a week later on an off day (not sure which one, maybe water which I know is not an actual off day, but its not a particularly good day for it either) and got something like ~55% HQ's. I also got a lot more HQ 2's the second time. I think I got maybe 1 the first time, but atleast 3 or 4 the second round.
Making these stacks for my friend is something I do pretty regularly, so I'll be sure and take better notes on it next time.

[klvino]

Some of us were around for the entire debate and subsequent flame war about Eruntalon's claims. He did post some very long and detailed pieces of data, as did many other people who researched it. Even with the data previously presented, it would only be accurate in so far as the time period collected. The best answer is to only take Eruntalon's info as anecdotal and perform your own research. In the end, the only data people really trust is that collected themselves.

Reciting Eruntalon toes the line on recreating the flame war, please don't go down that road and start fresh.

[Taskmage]

Fair enough ^^ and I agree. As you say, I'm not really going to accept anything as true until I have my own data to verify it.

I'm interested that you suggest the data may not still be valid, though. Do you think some behind the scenes changes might have taken place that make the older data inapplicable now? I heard some mumblings and grumblings after a recent patch about HQ frequency being reduced on lower tiers, but I took that as standard post-patch transference. "My X isn't doing very well tonight - oh noes they must have nerf X. Damn you SE!" - y'know.

[darnimsexy]

Given my experience with crafting it honestly wouldn't surprise me if there was some way to guarantee an extremely high chance of HQ on a single synth. Throughout crafting I have noticed day, moon, and time of day make a very significant difference on success, HQ, and skillups.

The part of this that seems the most worthy of a unique study to me is the time of day as much has already been studied about day and moon. From what I've seen the day seems to follow the day cycle on a 3 hour (in game) counter. My observations lead me to believe that it starts at lights day (0:00-2:59) and cycles through the various elements but ending with darksday (21:00-23:59). Unfortunately I do not have recorded data to back this up (I'm too lazy). I would not be surprised if somehow this is divided into even smaller units of time.

The main potential flaws I see with my current data is that the day cycle in game has dark following light. However, this is not the way it is in my current clock scheme. Also I don't know if it goes through the typical cycle for the other elements throughout the day. It could possibly have the light centric elements on 0:00-11:59 and the dark centric elements on 12:00-23:59.

Then again I could just be a complete and utter idiot that hallucinates skillups/HQs to match my little theories.

[Icemage]

There are numerous theories which claim to identify the conditions under which HQ results can be obtained.

Speaking from past experience, I believe moon phase, day and weather definitely affect the results in some way. Everything else is anecdotal, and while I personally have some unverified theories, the results are so incredibly random that it would take some very lucky testing to identify any significant trend.


Icemage

[Myaku]

I have renewed interest in trying to figure out the "formula" recently, and I have started a new test. Not enough data to post any findings yet, but I would like to share my list of factors and get some opinions. My personal belief is that there are 8 Factors that influence Crafting.

1. Skill level, aka HQ Tier - the 11, 31, and 51 Tiers. I don't believe there is any arguement about the effect Skill level has on HQ.
2. Day of the Week - I think it is generally accepted that the day effects things, though I have never seen anything to prove it either way.
3. Direction faced - I think the Crafting community is pretty much split 50/50 on this. I am a believer, though I am still going to test it to see for sure.
4. Time - I think it is generally accepted that time of day effects crafting. The debate starts on how. My personal belief is that it is fully Dark associated at midnight and fully Light associated at noon. The inbetween times have varrying effect depending on how close it is to noon or midnight, with 0600 and 1800 having neutral effect. When I get to testing Time, I will most likely break it down by the hour.
5. Moon Phase - I think Time and Moon Phase are very similar in their effect on crafting. I think Moon Phase has the same polar opposite effects of full Light at 100% FM and full Dark at 0% New Moon, with variable effect inbetween with 50% moons being neutral. This will be a bear to test, but it is testable.
6. Weather - It is plausable that Weather effects crafting, and it is easily testable.
7. Equipment - Equipment that has Elemental attributes is believed to effect crafting, and I will also look into this.
8. Mog House Element - I have heard of people loading their MH with a certain elelment to decrease losses on failed synths. I think it plausable, so I will test it.

I do not believe these factors have an "A+B=HQ" relationship. I see it being more of a "if, then" HQ relationship, similar to Weaponskills making Skillchains. I have started my first test of the Day of the Week. For testing, I am trying to keep all other variable as Constant as possible.

1. Tier - stays constant, I am above the cap on the test synth.
2. Day - being tested.
3. Direction - Face one direction for the duraton of the tet to make it constant.
4. Time - Testing done during a specific, consistent time window.
5. Moonphase - Testing done during 48%-52% moon phase. Not all days fall on just one %, so it is expanded to cover all days.
6. Weather - Testing done in S.Sandy. No weather.
7. Gear - Testing done in RSE, no elemental attributes.
8. MH Element - All MH furniture removed for testing.

Please, comment and discuss, and point out to me any holes you might see.

[Balfree]

All i can say right now is that Fire crystals tend to break alot with alchemy. But not with cooking... atleast thats my experience, i HQ very little with fire crystals, even stuff i am 70+ levels above.. water seems to HQ quite often, and lighhtining too.

I wonder if that means anything..

[Byrthnoth]

Similarly, Animal Glue is ridiculously easy to HQ as a low level alchemist. I think I got several HQs in skilling up on it, so the HQ rate might be slightly item-dependent too.

[Liquidedust]

Furniture only grans a mogenhancement and you therefore cannot have two crafting furnitures active at the same time so that doesn't work.

Edit: someone ninjaeditted real fast there while I were typing.

[Byrthnoth]

I'm a ninja >.>

[mikesjustice]

oi, don't bring this topic back to life lol.

[Akai]

Given my experience with crafting it honestly wouldn't surprise me if there was some way to guarantee an extremely high chance of HQ on a single synth. Throughout crafting I have noticed day, moon, and time of day make a very significant difference on success, HQ, and skillups.

The part of this that seems the most worthy of a unique study to me is the time of day as much has already been studied about day and moon. From what I've seen the day seems to follow the day cycle on a 3 hour (in game) counter. My observations lead me to believe that it starts at lights day (0:00-2:59) and cycles through the various elements but ending with darksday (21:00-23:59). Unfortunately I do not have recorded data to back this up (I'm too lazy). I would not be surprised if somehow this is divided into even smaller units of time.

The main potential flaws I see with my current data is that the day cycle in game has dark following light. However, this is not the way it is in my current clock scheme. Also I don't know if it goes through the typical cycle for the other elements throughout the day. It could possibly have the light centric elements on 0:00-11:59 and the dark centric elements on 12:00-23:59.

Then again I could just be a complete and utter idiot that hallucinates skillups/HQs to match my little theories.

this may be somewhat true O_o when i try to HQ status bolts, i end up HQing more around nighttime... like 16-18+

ill do a few tests and post back

[Akai]

ok, had 12 synth trys of bloody bolts and heres what turned up, 18-21
fyi, i am 69 +1, facing SE on firesday, 67% waning gibbous

33
break, no loss
33
66
66
33
99
33
33
33
33
66

so, thats... 33.33333... percent chance of HQ
ill try again soon, with synths during daylight