| Quote: |
| Does anyone actually have -HARD- data on this? I'm not talking about "I test it with craft X, item X for an hour and made it 50 times"; i'm talking about extended period, hard data, difinitive proof one way or the other instead of "I read somewhere..." or "I think..." |
The problem with trying to do any type of extensive testing is the many factors that could go into determining the out come of a synth.
Moon phase, time of day, day, direction faced, skill level, level from or above cap, equipment worn, mog enhancment, guild support, weather or city synthing in and guild items, and the random generator from the server
Some people would argue that each of the above mentioned items can change the out come of a synth.
In order to test for an HQ theroy, you would have to be able to control each of these criteria. Most are easy to control, but time of day, moon phase and day of the week will not match up very often. And when they do it could be 3:00 in the morning in RL the first time and then 12:00 in the afternoon the next time.
So you have a limited window, that will have the same variables, in which to preform your your testing. One game day is around 45 RL minutes and you can only synth once every 10-15 seconds or so. Tht will give you between 270 and 180 synths, if the item is stackable. If the item or the ingrediants are not stackable you have to take out time to send items to a mule or sell to an NPC.
Now if there are time windows, as some suggest, of 8 time zones during each game day then you only have 33 to 23 synths for each window for each game day.
So to compile even 1000 syths, with the same variables, you would need to hit this window roughly 30 to 43 times. It would take either a team of crafters all working toward the same goal, or a couple of years to compile even that small amount of data, and then some people would still say that 1000 synths is just too small of a pool, and that you need at least 10,000 synths inorder to produce any kind of real hard data.
Now
IF this could ever be accomplished, do you think those that put this kind of testing together would share it with the rest of the crafting world?